It has been a largely mixed bag type of winter for the UK up till this point with two substantial cold spells which in fact were strong and long enough to make the overall December and January period colder than average for the UK (1st cold spell was snowless, 2nd a snow lovers paradise for many), remember the cold between late November and the first 10 days of December, then it turned towards mid-month and held through early January before a more significant cold spell arrived which lasted 10-14 days and once again brought a largely white UK for a solid week to 10 days. That btw is no mean feat for the UK. Don’t underestimate how tough it is to get that to happen yet again here in the UK. A 3rd time in 4 years, quite incredible. Of course January started major mild with highs of 13C all the way to the top of Cairngorm Summit which was the warmest January reading ever recorded up there. The pattern flipped to cold around the 13th to much colder and snowier, lasted through Jan 25th. Part of the reason for tonight’s post is a look back at what’s happened but more importantly, what’s ahead and how this month may compare and tally up with the overall 3 month meteorological winter period. The mild is ready to end once again with the AO/AO returning to a negative phase.

[s2If current_user_can(access_s2member_level1)]

While the mild arguably lasted longer than the cold in December, the month of January may have been more 50-50 but the noteworthy aspect for me is that the cold has outdone the mild, making both December and January a little below normal.

So what about February? Well if you’ve been reading all the way back to autumn, you know I have always said that February could be a month to watch for cold. It had and continues to have real potential in bringing a cold, possibly nasty second half to winter. For about 2 weeks now I have been saying how there was plenty of winter ahead in February and there was even a chance that February may wind up coldest of all meteorological winter months this year. I stand by that and if I may even go a step further and say, this month may wind up one of the colder February’s in the last 3-6 years. The persistency in models bringing the cold back to the UK and possibly lasting 10 to as much as 20 days, is amazing.

I have layed this winter out for you, making my thoughts quite clear. What we have in front of us, is a third UK ‘colder than normal’ month with a 3rd cold spell coming up. It amazes me to find all those claiming this year was like last, have dissappeared. The Azores high would be too dominant JUST LIKE LAST YEAR or the Atlantic jet stream was too strong JUST LIKE LAST YEAR!! Or each time the mild returned, that would be it for another year.

I am my biggest critic and while you may hate to see a poor forecast, i hate it all the more but what I will say, have said and will say again.. this is not last year and hasn’t been like last year. We had cold in December, colder still during January and lots more winter cold, potentially snow on the way to make it a 3rd month in a row. My reason for higher confidence this year was simply when analysing the global pattern and drivers. Anywhere from the bias towards negative, instead of positive (like last year) in the NAO/AO, the difference in water temps over the North Atlantic and surrounding Britain, the super wet summer with the onset of the El Nino. There was so many factors which suggested very different to last year. The claims of warm this winter and a repeat of last year was ignorant with a lack of understanding and a failure to look at the global pattern and mark it against history.

[/s2If][s2If current_user_is(s2member_level0)]

Join a subscription plan, [s2Get constant=”S2MEMBER_CURRENT_USER_DISPLAY_NAME” /]!

[warning]You do not have a valid subscription to access premium content exclusive to members. You will need to join a subscription plan if you would like to continue.[/warning][/s2If][s2If !is_user_logged_in()]

Sign in to read the full forecast…

Not yet a member? Start your 7 day free trial

Create your free markvoganweather.com account today to get unlimited access to Mark Vogan’s premium articles, video forecasts and expert analysis for 7 days.
[/s2If]