A wild situation is evolving right now between Greenland and Scotland with winds now increasing here and are set to blow an all-out and ‘biting’, NW gale overnight into tomorrow. An elongated or stretched out 1034-1036mb high extending from Iberia to near North America, with a deep low centred near Iceland, not only stretches out the pressure field but tightens it. This means a gale with hurricane-force gusts extend from Greenland all the way to Scotland over the next 24 hours which is fairly unusual and very interesting. While very powerful gale to storm-force winds will blow across Scotland and to a lesser extent into Northern England tonight and tomorrow, this flow at gale-force intensity extends some 2,000 miles and so not only will that wind feel bitterly cold but it stays colder than normal because of the speed at which is crosses the warmer waters of the ocean. The faster winds blow, the faster air masses get from point A to B, leaves less time to moderate significantly.

This is a particularly wild setup we’re in because the powerhouse jet at 40,000ft is racing directly across us, splitting the UK into two halves. On the southside of the jet, it’s relatively mild but on the north side which encorporates Scotland, it’s far colder with temperatures crashing to near freezing by morning. Rain showers will turn increasingly snowy overnight. Factor in a gale or severe-gale (storm-force gusts) with air temperatures near freezing and wind chills across Scotland by morning could be in the -10 to -20C range even at low levels, considerably more up at munro level believe it or not. Remember, this air is coming straight from Greenland. A frozen wasteland.

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Wind and rain preceed the frontal system associated with the actual low up near Iceland. A somewhat fragmented rain band will sweep into the UK tonight into tomorrow morning, across the South of England, temperatures are near 5 or 6C with air less cold but further north and

By Tuesday, a low positioned to the east of the UK with high pressure building north from the Azores up to Iceland, sets up a cold northwesterly flow, this setup not only supports a struggle to reach freezing all the way to central England but snow showers are also possible.

The ECMWF shows the increasingly colder 850mb temperatures being driven in from the west.

Initial

24 hrs (Mon night)

48 hrs (Tues night)

The GFS suggests increasingly wintry precipitation through Monday and Tuesday as the jet sinks south, heights crash and the air mass cools considerably from top down with the deepening of the trough. Yopur asking, what about any snow?

Check this out!

That chart covers the period from tonight through Tuesday night. Whether we get this amount of snow out of this remains to be seen but while winds blow hard out of the west tomorrow, the column will continue cooling and so rain showers quickly turn to snow. By tomorrow night into Tuesday, the front clears east and so winds veer northwesterly, this introduces a slightly different type of air mass but cold nonetheless. Expect the 850s to moderate slightly later tomorrow into Tuesday as the forcing of air from Greenland to Scotland shuts down as that source gets closed off with a change in wind direction. However, once those winds start biting out of the N, NW, look for a reinforcing of the colder air once again. Yes, it will be cold tomorrow and especially Tuesday, made far worse by the howling and VERY COLD west wind. Wednesday through Friday looks colder as the air mass coming due south from the arctic has even less ocean to cross and so look for colder 850s and colder surface temperatures. Another thing to keep in mind is that while the flow is fast over the next 48 hours from Greenland to Scotland, the water temperatures are milder to our west than they are to our north. The shorter distance from north to south rather than from Greenland to Scotland also factors in colder waters to the north which helps moderate these air masses even less.

Here’s the ECMWF 850mb temperatures for Wednesday through Saturday. Note the colder temperatures at 5,000ft compared to the initial 48 hours. Yes, this does correlate to colder air at the surface too.

72 hrs (Wed night)

 

 

Note the greens stay well to the west, this is the high which, like we saw the last time, will keep mild Atlantic air well to the west beyond Tuesday and could stay that way into the following week.

Will touch more on the 7-10 day in a post tomorrow. Plenty of weather and more impirtantly winter coming up. Keep warm and stay safe whilst travelling.

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