As we look out into the longer term, there appears to be a swaying towards an up and down temperature profile through the first 15 days of February.

The NAO and AO are going negative in the 7-10 day and with the PNA currently positive, the snapper in the works’ may be that it returns to a negative phase by mid-month which of course means more of a trough in the West.

The trouble for me as a forecaster is that with some of the models, they appear to be pretty far out compared to other model agreements. For example the GFS has more of a ridge over the ROCKIES while the ECMWF, Met Office and Canadian have that same ridge further back along the coast. This difference makes all the difference in terms of position and depth of eastern trough and how much cold is being transferred into that trough.

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By Friday, the cold reaches the East Coast, check this out.

 

A system tracking pretty much west-east will develop along the Mid-Atlantic coast later Sunday and should bring a 2-4 inch swath of snow from the OH Valley to New York area Sun night.

By next Tuesday, the ECMWF holds a western ridge-eastern trough but the amplification is shallow. Without the northward ‘poking’, the truly arctic air cannot be taped and ultimately brought south into the East. Truthfully, this model right now is unimpressive in terms of cold, HOWEVER with the PNA remaining negative and the NAO and AO set to dive, this tells me that changes are coming in that this info imputed in coming days, should provide more amplification in the NA pattern.

Here’s that shallow look for next Tues.

Finally, here’s the latest GFS ensemble for the next 16 days. Note the warming after this cold shot but a return to colder later in the period.

Plenty more winter to come for the Eastern US. Will have more later.
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