I often show you the NAO and AO status, the daily model runs and every so often the stratospheric temps but now and again I try to show you something a little different. For about 10-14 days now I have given my own personal reasoning and showed you evidence to support my belief that we have plenty more winter on the way to the UK, Europe as well as the United States, however, Piers Corbyn of WeatherAction in London has pointed out something which is very interesting and yet another good indicator of colder times to come. Piers points out that although the typical 10mb level is cold, no that’s a level we usually look at roughly for warming and therefore a southward push of arctic air out of the arctic and into the mid-latitudes, however Piers has shown to his followers and subscribers that at the 70mb level, which is warm and although within the LOWER stratosphere, can still promote high latitude blocking. Joe Bastardi also alluded to this too.

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Check this out..

Here’s the typical level we would tend to look for warming and notice the predominantly cold look.

Here’s 70mb, lower down within the stratosphere. Major warmth!

Right now, although I stand firm to the idea that the upcoming 20-40 days will display plenty of cold and possible snow, we will see mild interludes in between but through this upcoming period, don’t let your guard down, I still am not convinced that we have seen the worst of this winter yet and there is a lot of indication which supports a colder than normal month overall but by no means does this come even close to December 2010. That month really was exceptional and will be tough to even get close to never mind beat.

The ECMWF remains firm with next week with a very cold Saturday coming up, a pull back Sunday as the next Atlantic low sweeps in but looking out particularly at mid to late next week, we certainly appear to have some cold days and nights. The model is consistent with positioning the high out over the central North Atlantic in classic -NAO fashion and with a major trough axis positioned just to our east, that puts us beneath a very raw northerly flow and with plenty of cold up there, there is no disputing what’s coming down.

Ok, let me show you how the ECMWF upper chart and 850s are looking Sat-Sun and then through next week. While a northerly flow is not particularly favorable for snow, keep in mind that our Sun-Monday system needs to head east, southeast and as this pulls away, watch out on the backside for any lingering moisture. Once those winds veer N, NW or even N, NE, the arctic air rushes in fast and so rain can quickly change over to snow.

Snow showers can be expected tonight through tomorrow over northern and eastern Scotland while England and Wales as well as Ireland stay in the still relatively milder air. By Saturday however expect highs no better than 1-2C across much of Scotland, perhaps northern England, 2-4C all the way to the south coast. A stiff north wind will make it feel quite bitter and well below freezing. Look out for icy patches, especially where the ground remains damp from recent rains.

Sunday into Monday sees the next system and a recovery in temperature as the flow returns to a southwesterly, but once this departs, the trough gets recarved and down comes the cold once again. Like I say, take a look at particularly mid to late week, notice the persistency in the trough and northerly flow over the UK and Ireland. BTW, I am showing you every day from today through day 10 simply because this chart has been exceptionally persistent in this overall idea. Don’t forget to watch the video at the bottom.

Sat

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