The snow and ice storm from the Lakes to Northeast will lead the warming for early next week, starting in the Plains now. As heights rise and slide east, the arctic air gets kicked out into the Atlantic and finally the coldest spell for the Northeast since Jan 2004 is over, however while warming replaces the cold in the East, a trough and yes, arctic air will come immediately back in, so make the most of the ‘milder’ air, this ain’t going to last.

With the setup of a Plains ridge sliding east and a trough returning on the back edge, a southwest/northeast oriented boundary sets up from Texas to the Great Lakes mid next week and so expect some big rains. Flooding is a high probability.

Here’s the warmth over the Plains reaching into the Lakes tomorrow. Expect highs by Monday or Tuesday to rocket into the 40s in Minneapolis, 50s in Chicago but a sudden drops comes straight after as the ridge slides east.

[s2If current_user_can(access_s2member_level1)]

Here’s the QPF depicting the heavy runs from Texas and the Lower Mississippi Valley to Appalachains next week as the trough deepens on the backside of the ridge. As well as heavy, thundery rains from Texas to New York state, a push of very mild air could possibly enhance the atmosphere and trigger severe weather and ahead of the front with snows breaking out on the backside. Temperatures temporarily from Georgia up into North Carolina could return to the low 70s with those strong southwest upper winds extending down to the surface. This however last a day or two at best as the front quickly pushes east.

Note the precip Out West with storminess coming into the PNW but the lack of moisture over the western High Plains, folks this is bad news for the spring and summer i’m affraid.

Here comes the trough that drops into the Plains early in the week.

This could bring a subzero high back to Minneapolis and a struggle to 10 degrees for Chicago Thursday or Friday with sub zero lows for both cities. What a flip inside 5 days.

As for the East. Check this out for Friday.

This brings the arctic wolf right back into the Northeast. The question I ask is, as the arctic front pushes into the coastal plain, do we see a low develop and ride up the coast, bringing perhaps a snow storm, then an arctic blast?

Once the trough enters the east, it doesn’t get kicked out by another ridge back west, it holds and may well deepen in place. Remember my post for the other day where the models are all over a major arctic blast to start Feb.

[/s2If][s2If current_user_is(s2member_level0)]

Join a subscription plan, [s2Get constant=”S2MEMBER_CURRENT_USER_DISPLAY_NAME” /]!

[warning]You do not have a valid subscription to access premium content exclusive to members. You will need to join a subscription plan if you would like to continue.[/warning][/s2If][s2If !is_user_logged_in()]

Sign in to read the full forecast…

Not yet a member? Start your 7 day free trial

Create your free markvoganweather.com account today to get unlimited access to Mark Vogan’s premium articles, video forecasts and expert analysis for 7 days.
[/s2If]