The first truely MILD system is pushing across the UK just now and this is bringing on the snowmelt fast. The warmer winds along with the snow melt is increasing the flood risk by the hour and unfortunately this is just the beginning of what will be a tough week for UK residents. Another 3 storm systems will pass by to the NW of the UK now through Thursday and as each one passes, a frontal boundary will sweep in one rain band after the other, as well as strong to possibly damaging winds.

The second low sweeps it’s cold front through tomorrow with southwesterly gales and 1-2 inches of rain. Another system arrives later Tuesday into Wednesday while Friday sees another.

While much of this week remains windy with some spells windier than others, it’s as the Wednesday system exits to the northeast of Scotland, that I am concerned about very strong winds across Scotland, particularly the Outer Hebrides, northern mainland and Northern Isles. Gusts may top 90+ mph with gales across the country.

Keep in mind that we have saturated ground across a large swath of the UK and Ireland following the big rains in December and throughout last year and this water remains beneath the frozen top soils. The frozen ground creates an issue with drainage all by itself but once this thaws, significant flooding will return once again.

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Here is rainfall totals for the next 7 days according to the GFS.

 

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