The big story at the moment is the ice storm which is encompassing the Midwest and eventually the East Coast. Freezing rain, sleet and snow is causing headaches tonight throughout the Lower Midwest and into the interior Northeast later. Warm, moist air is pushing north and bumping up against cold air already in place. Many areas including Minneapolis, Madison and Chicago are starting with snow, then changing over the freezing rain and for points further south towards Kansas City and St Louis over to Indianapolis, it’s starting as freezing rain where upwards of a half inch ice accumulations are possible widely. This will cause all sorts of problems. The ALL snow event stays up over northern Minnesota, Wisconsin, upper Michigan and across to northern New York and New England.

As for Cleveland, Pittsburgh, State College to New York, you see snow as the moisture runs northeast before the cold gets kicked out by the warmth coming up from the southwest but there could be a spell of freezing rain after a half inch to an inch of snow falls perhaps as far south and east as NYC. With residual cold air extending as far down the East Coast as North Carolina, freezing rain may glace roads, signs and trees all the way to Richmond, perhaps Rocky Mount, NC. Any frozen pricip is very short lived, especially this far south and may only be a cold rain. Heights should rise enough overnight Monday into Tuesday for temps to return to the upper 40s and 50s and by Tuesday or certainly Wednesday, 70s are back and could reach the NC/VA border.

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Here’s an AccuWeather graphic which depicts the situation well.

Wild Temperature Ride West To East Next Week, Severe Risk Returns!

From today through Wednesday a ridge that’s responsible for pumping unusual warmth all the way up into the central and even Northern Plains, will also help both kick out the arctic air over the East and will eventually fuel big rains along an increasingly active frontal boundary. As the front pushes east, the air grows increasingly warmer and more humid with Gulf moisture getting transported up into Texas and across the Southern states. Highs will reach near 80 along the upper Texas coast to low and mid-70s all the way to Kansas and Missouri, 50s up to into Iowa, possibly southern Minnesota.

However, this is only part of the story because a trough will get carved out all the way to the Desert Southwest where a storm forms. As this system forms and slides east, so frigid arctic air will get forced south through the Great Basin and Rockies. This along with the warmth out ahead, means a natural fight zone and so thunderstorms will blow up along this boundary. The turning of the atmosphere at both the base of the trough and along the frontal zone where the two increasingly conflicting air masses meet, expect some lively weather in coming days, especially as the boundary pushes into the Mississippi and Ohio Valley.

Here’s the latest QPF chart for rain over the next 5 days.

Remember that the entire pattern is moving east, so while the ridge slides east and temperatures rise as the southwest flow increases, expect colder and colder air to follow on the backside. Minneapolis could see low to mid 40s Monday if the warm front gets far enough north while Chicago looks likely to soar to the balmy mid-50s but once the boundary sweeps through with rain, ice and possibly backside snow, temperatures crash by 30+ degrees. By Tuesday if not Wednesday it’s back to the teens for Minneapolis and by Thursday perhaps only low single digits. Chicago returns to the 20s Wednesday, low teens Thursday.

A 120+mph jet will roar from TX to the Lakes midweek, supporting tremendous upper level dynamics along with the steep thermal gradient.

Tuesday Risk Area

My concern for Tuesday is from south, central Texas, Louisiana, Oklahoma, Arkansas, Missouri, western Tennessee, northern Mississippi. Flooding rains, damaging winds, hail and an isolated tornado is all possible with the thunderstorms that develop along and ahead of the front.

Wednesday Risk Area

By Wednesday, the risk heads east through Alabama, Georgia and even the Carolinas up into Tennessee and this risk area may extend up into Kentucky, southern Indiana and Ohio. Ahead of the front, highs rise towards 80 across southern and central Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia, 70s may extend all the way to southern Virginia.

Keep an eye of where it may snow during Wednesday. I wouldn’t be surprised it it snows all the way to central Texas following the passing of the front.

Here’s a look at the GFS temperature anomaly spread across the country by Wednesday. While there’s some impressive warmth spreading across the Eastern two thirds, the arctic punch coming down on the backside as every bit as impressive.

Notice by Friday and only 48 hours later, what appears to be a vast sea of warmth, is competely off the map except for New England and what’s more impressive is the intensity of arctic air that’s piling into the Upper Midwest. Minneapolis may hold at or below zero for not one but perhaps two days while Chicago stays in single digits. As for the DC to Boston corridor, rain may end as snow from North Georgia all the way to Maine as the arctic front clears the coast Friday. Highs go from 50s Thursday to low 20s Saturday with Boston staying in the mid-teens.

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