For many (but not all), this past 7-10 days has been quite a spell of snowy weather and today marks the finale as the next and final front to bring heavy snow pushes in. Many of you with 6+ inches of snow on the ground will get an additional 2-4, locally 6 inches and before the WARM air follows in behind to turn snow to rain and to also start the thawing process, I wouldn’t be surprised if we see the greatest snowdepth of all later today. There are some areas which have 25-30cm of lying snow and with an additional few, somewhere may get 33-36cm, that’s 14 or so inches.

We finally got some decent overnight snow here in Lennoxtown just to the north of Glasgow where it’s been a big dissapointment. We missed out on all the winter fun but at least, for many of you, it’s been no dissapointment.

There is an amber warning in place across a broad area of the UK today for heavy snow and additional travel disruption. A strengthening south wind could cause further blowing and drifting over high ground. Don’t be surprised if there are further road closures today too.

While much of the UK mainland, away from the west coast gets one last blast of heavy snow before the pattern flips, the Low Countries, a large chunk of France, Germany will also get in on further heavy snowfall and possibly blizzard conditions later Sunday into Monday as the front sweeps across the North Sea.

[s2If current_user_can(access_s2member_level1)]

If travelling out of Paris, Brussels, Amsterdam, Copenhagen, Berlin over the next few days is likely to be hampered and unfortunately for those who hate this winter weather, there is a slower return to the milder pattern over mainland Europe. Even the Low Countries, the snow will hang around through much of next week with days barely struggling to get above freezing. Nights, where clear, will remain bitter.

By Sunday, Monday, the UK thaw will be well underway but even tomorrow, highs won’t be as warm as you think given the snow will continue to chill the lower atmosphere. Central and eastern parts, where the atmosphere will stay colder for longer and where the snow is deepest, it may not get much above freezing till Monday.

Below is the latest snow chart off the GFS and this will be the last for the UK from this current cold spell. Will it be the last of winter? The answer is UNLIKELY!

While most areas by tonight will have seen their snow with a transition to rain by tomorrow, the GFS shows HEAVY snow persisting over the southern and particularly WEST Highlands through 84+ hours with totals really mounting up. Below is the GFS snow chart through 84 hours. This suggests 18-24 hours. What will happen is that while midler air spreads in at lower levels, there will be enough could air above 2,500ft for snow to continue falling while it’s rain below this level, so therefore heavy snows will continue.

Another area which may hold onto snow longest outwith the Highlands could be the western upslodes of the Pennines, not far from Manchester. Notice the model showing a secondary bulls eye with nearly a foot of snow accumulating.

As for tomorrow, once the front exits, the thaw begins widely with warmer southwest winds. However as southwest and western areas see temperatures return to between 5-8C with significant icing problems with rain falling on frozen ground and snow melting and refreezing on subfreezing ground, areas across Highlands and easterm Scotland and from the Pennines on east could see some additional snow or at least hold onto the colder air from longer. Keep in mind that the snowpack is deepest, expect a cold next few days with highs only mustering 1-2C.

Sub-965mb Low Top Bring SW Gales Early Next Week

By early next week we will be slapped back to reality with our more classic pattern. The jet has been intensifying out over the Atlantic in recent days as the pattern changes, an active W, SW storm track returns this weekend with full effects again by Monday into Tuesday. Mild southwest winds and heavy rain will dominate next week and this ACTIVE spell bring a pretty rapid thaw. While many western parts see snow dissappear by 36 hours, eastern parts will hold onto the colder temperatures and their snow through early and mid next week.

Check this out for early next week off MeteoGroup.

This is a weather map we haven’t seen in a while. A 964mb low pushing northeast off the west coast. Expect southwest gales, a spell of heavy rain which will LIKELY bring flooding, especially since the ground is frozen and there is no way for the water to drain through the soil. As well as the frozen ground, keep in mind how much water is already present in the soils following weeks and months of rain.

Our flooding woes are nowhere near over I’m affraid.

Here’s the latest ECMWF upper chart for next week.

[/s2If][s2If current_user_is(s2member_level0)]

Join a subscription plan, [s2Get constant=”S2MEMBER_CURRENT_USER_DISPLAY_NAME” /]!

[warning]You do not have a valid subscription to access premium content exclusive to members. You will need to join a subscription plan if you would like to continue.[/warning][/s2If][s2If !is_user_logged_in()]

Sign in to read the full forecast…

Not yet a member? Start your 7 day free trial

Create your free markvoganweather.com account today to get unlimited access to Mark Vogan’s premium articles, video forecasts and expert analysis for 7 days.
[/s2If]