Since before I left for my vacation back on January 4th, I have been banging home the point that the 2nd half to this winter would be very different to the 1st and while it may be cold now, get ready because if the CFSv2 is correct, then you ain’t seen nothing yet my friends.

While temperatures bottomed out at -42 this morning up in Embarrass, Minnesota, making for the coldest this season in the Lower 48, warming returns this weekend, starting over the Plains and this will migrate east. However, while the Northeast shivers this weekend in possibly the coldest nights yet, with NYC potentially dipping into single digits Sat night-Sunday on the backside of the system, warmth returns briefly to the East Coast early next week. This warmth will be following by yet another finger of arctic air diving into the Northern Plains, only this time, it may bring even worse cold down than what we are seeing now.

The latest CFS v2 shows a brutally cold period looming and this may last for upwards of 2 weeks with no break in between. Live in the Ohio Valley and East Coast, enjoy the 5-10 degrees above normal for 2-5 days next week. This will give you a chance to catch your breath and prepare for what looms from Feb 1st through 15th.

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As you can see from the first chart, the cold gets kicked out with warmth appearing to cover a broad area.

In the second chart, notice that as the East Coast enjoys above normal temperatures, just look at what’s coming from NW Canada, ouch!

Wow, now that looks like the real deal. Perhaps another 2004 style outbreak in the Plains perhaps?

If this comes down as severely as this model suggests then, readings we saw back in the January 2004 outbreak are possible when it hit 50 below in Fosston, MN, 44 below in Grand Forks, ND, 24 below in Minneapolis with highs holding at 24 below in Thief River Falls, MN, 22 below in Fargo, ND.

 

 

Remember the outbreak over the East that month? NYC hit 0 twice, Philly hit 4 and even DC hit 8. Boston fell to -7 while several nights saw -30s and -40s up in Northern New England.

Finally, here is the entire month of February according to the model!

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