While it got down to -13.4C over Norfolk last week, the low dropped to -12.2C this morning in Cambridge and these values may not be the lowest we see before all this is said and down. Anytime you get clearing skies, along with light winds over a snow pack, the temperature falls towards and below -10C with ease given the amount of cold aloft. Most areas have escaped nay real cold despite the large extend of snow cover. Temperatures have been largely kept at bay due to the persistency of east wind, cloudcover and snow, so it’s mostly isolated areas which are sinking at night into truely COLD territory.

While some of you will be dreading the thought of milder weather returning, while others rejoyce, the focus of mild will overlook what’s coming just prior to all this ending.

More often than not a cold spell lasting upwards of 2 weeks with this much snow covering the UK, rarely leaves without producing at least one widespread VERY cold night. Why do I think this? More often than not, a clear, settled slot will push in ahead of an approaching push of mild air. We saw that around New Year 2011 when temperatures hit -18C then was quickly followed by a quick thaw and return to normal temperatures. A high should erode much of the cloudcover across England and Wales late this week and with cold air sitting over a still-deep snow cover, this sets the stage for a frigid night, particularly for England and Wales.

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Despite the BBC not mentioning anything about major cold coming late in the week, they have made mention about a drier and more settled period beyond Wednesday.

Scotland this time around may see absolute minimums of only -10 to -13C, tonight and or tomorrow night over the snowfields of Grampian and or the Borders where skies are clearest skies. Persistent cloud, wind and snow has kept it from getting bitter, but further south and over rural England and central Wales, there is a chance of seeing temperatures widely sink below -10C with a few spots perhaps pushing -18C.

Firstly, here’s an estimate according to the GFS of where the deepest snow cover is tonight.

While there may be some isolated lows down to -12/-13C where skies are clearest over the snowpack, it’s Wednesday and Thursday’s nights in particular where it may get interesting. Note the coldest air settles over the deepest snows which are the Scottish Borders down through Northumberland into Co Durham extending south through the heart of England. Remember what’s going on over southern England today where further heavy snow will present a fresh 2-4, locally 6 inch snow over the hills of Exmoor and Dartmoor, extending east towards Somerset and Dorset. Deep snow also covers south Wales, thanks to last Friday’s storm.

Check out the latest GFS temperature forecast for Thursday morning.

Friday morning.

As you’ll notice from this, the core of cold will be focused across the southern half of the UK, check out the CFSv2 for the next 5 days. Matches nicely with what I’m saying.

While it may turn very cold over the central and southern UK, it turns frigid across the Low Countries of Europe with inland parts of both Belgium and Netherlands dipping below -18C territory over the widespread snowfields.

Here’s the GFS temperature anomaly from today through Saturday.

The above chart shows much of England a full 4 to 8C BELOW NORMAL but if you look at the Low Countries, they are even worse at 8 to 11C below normal with this range stretching all the way to Moscow.

As we all now know, milder weather returns this weekend but the cold may be slow to ease with a return to normality coming early next week. By mid next week, much of the UK and western Europe snow should be gone.

Here’s the GFS day 8-16.

The good news for all you winter weather lovers is, here’s the CFSv2 from Feb 11 through 21.

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