A quick update on a dismal, dreary Christmas Eve afternoon. Despite any poor weather outside I hope your all enjoying time with your family and friends and taking it easy out on the roads. The weather is certainly very poor and I guess the same could be said for the outlook over the next 7+days.

Looking at the latest chart through the next 10 days off the ECMWF, the NAO is most certainly positive with no block to the northwest and that means a zonal flow unfortunately which looks to takes us through the first week of January. Does this mean a winter forecast bust or a non-winter for the UK? The answer is no it doesn’t. It was very mild through the first 18 days of the month across the US, but the pattern shifted quite drastically there and a much colder setup is now evolving. Give it time and patience, I believe we will get there but right now, I don’t see anything particularly cold if I am being honest.

Here’s the current NAO ensemble. Note the sharp spike into positive territory, but remember this happened in November and many screamed, noooo, then it came back down and went into the tank. Given the trend through this year, the NAO will tank once again and with the cold now settling into the US and not Asia, once a block returns, we may be in better sted with that high setting over further east and more over Greenland, so in turn the trough and cold may impact us more.

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Here’s the latest ECMWF upper and 850 chart.

Will have a short post and video Christmas messege for you tomorrow morning!

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