While we know the weekend will be rather wet and windy, many of you are wondering what next week may have in store. If I am being honest, next week is giving me a headache, there is so much on the table with very mild air and super cold air running close to each other and both these air masses are close to the UK. Modelling is and will struggle to find a solution and ultimately what could happen is we could see a mild week with a few bumps in the road or we could see a blast of very cold with snow. We could even see a wild back and forth flip between very mild and very cold within a matter of a day or two.
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While the latest ECMWF control shows cold then major warmth between 27-30, the deterministic shows a ‘cold zonal’, in other words there is a sharp thermal gradient and if we manage to get south of the boundary, it will be cold despite a westerly flow but if we stay to the south, it will be mild. The cold is expanding, in fact it’s west, east and north but there’s plenty of mild very close to our south so it’s really all to play for.
Even Boxing Day, while the ECMWF Determinitic is relatively cold with more westerly flow, the GFS is colder with -5C temps at 850 riding over Scotland from a NW direction and probably cold enough to bring snow if there was any moisture.
ECMWF Deterministic
Courtesy of AccuWeather Pro
GFS
Courtesy of AccuWeather Pro
As you can see for the below GFS chart right out to the 28th (180 hrs), the cold NW flow persists from the 26th with -5C temps at 850, much colder than the flatter ECMWF but note the mild coming in behind. This heralds a storm system coming in but with a lot of cold air around, this could be a snow producer.
Courtesy of AccuWeather Pro
Here’s the warm air lifting into the UK at 192 but straight after this pushes through, more cold air sweeps in on the backside. This system may bring rain with a changeover to snow or with cold air stubborn to get kicked out, may be more of a snow producer.. This is all IF the GFS was onto something and the ECMWF happened to be wrong.
Courtesy of AccuWeather Pro
Notice by as soon as 216, the cold comes back in.
Courtesy of AccuWeather Pro
By 240 it overwhelms again..
Courtesy of AccuWeather Pro
Moral is, we have a battle between warm and cold next week. Although the ECMWF is flatter and somewhat zonal, it could still deliver cold air next week. The GFS is colder with more NW flow. A system late next week is shown to push milder air into the UK but if the GFS is right and there’s plenty of cold air between the 26-28, then any ‘milder’ air may not nesesarily bring rain. The GFS also brings the cold right back in after..
It’s all to play for next week. Sorry I can’t give you a more precise forecast but I will certainly show you all that I’m seeing.
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Yeah, it’s pretty hard to nail it at the moment. Anyway, it seems there is a lots of snow and wind coming my way on sunday, but to melt on Monday. There might accumulate enough snow for a white christmas, but it will be wet snow on the 24. as it will – as mentionend – be thawing that day. Afterwards it’s not looking good, but as you say, there is room for some cold surprises.