We continue to sit beneath an atmospheric battleground between Atlantic and arctic/continental air and for now, the Atlantic is winning but for how long?

For the past week to 10 days I have made mention about the fact that snowcover will become extensive across Europe by the end of this week. This is important if the UK is to see true cold and for a prolonged period of time, just like 2009-10 and 2010-11. I have always urged you to think outside the box when it comes to long range forecasting and to be able to see and appreciate what it takes for a coldwave to come to the UK. Always remember that it difficult to get a prolonged and deep cold spell in the UK. It goes against the grain. Remember, don’t focus on models and our region but look globally and see what’s happening all around.

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While many jump back and forth with each new model run, one day shouting the coming of the next ice age, the next shouting that a heat wave is coming.. Our worst cold comes when Europe turns white and it fills the air with brutally cold air. With time,  a Scandinavian high develops and with that, comes a bitterly cold easterly flow into the UK. As this happens, while pressures continue lowering over Europe westwards into the UK, so the stronger heights get deflected west and and north.. overtop of these lowering heights. Soon enough, the strongest heights are positioned over the North Atlantic, Greenland and across the north. Modelling supports the filling of Europe snow then cold and the NAO turning more negative which would mean that the cold is forcing the ridge west and then north. Folks we appear to be entering the same situation which occured back in early December 2009 and in late November 2010.

 

The earliest positive indications which suggested by long standing ideas for this front end of winter had potential merit, was with the exceptionally large Russia-wide snowpack, the second step was seeing this expand westwards into Europe. As this happens, cold air naturally builds and heads west. Soon enough, the depth of cold within the atmosphere will become too strong for the weaker, shallower mild Atlantic air.

Many fear a repeat of last year but I’ve said right from the beginning back in September, this is practically the opposite to last year with the NAO/AO predominantly positive. This year there’s no drought but saturated ground with the greatest rainfall anomalies centred over the UK this summer and autumn. Remember what I say time and time again.. where the greatest rains are earlier in the season.. that’s where the cold wants to go later down the road (quoated by Joe Bastardi).. This year the NAO is bias negative and when you’ve got signs of a stratospheric warming event taking place on the Asia-Alaska side of the arctic.. so all things point to cold for both Europe and the UK and yes, the USA too. Just look at how cold the MAJORITY of CANADA is.. Not just in the arctic region but throughout this vast country.. The vast coverage of snow means that despite all the warmth sweeping across the Lower 48, with the NAO expected to go negative and more importantly, the PNA expected to go positive.. this means all that brutal, ‘built up’ arctic air will come south.. It’s only a matter of when, not if and it’s the same with the UK and eventually Ireland too.

It was Joe D’Aleo recently, who alluded to the fact that the stratosphere was warming on the Asia and Alaska side and this would bode well with the potential trapping of significant cold for the US Lower 48 as the PNA flips from negative to positive and the NAO goes deeper into negative once again. and it also aids in sealing the cold across Europe including the UK and Ireland.

Recap.. Important elements which could bring us another spell of brutal winter conditions in the run up to Christmas just like we saw back in 2010.

1) Stratospheric warming on the Asia-Alaska side of the pole

2) NAO goes negative

3) Snowcover becomes extensive across Europe

4) Scandinavian high develops

5) Bitter cold over Europe gets pulled west as ridge retreats west and north of UK and Scandinavian high steers Siberian air UK-bound.
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