Over the next 7 days there are two potential systems which could present UK snowfall, the first being Friday of this week and the second being next Monday. In between, there will be plenty of bright, sunny weather but cold with daytime highs held at between 0-4C and where skies are clear by night, a frost and rural lows of -2 to -6C are a given. I wouldn’t be surprised if the Highlands in coming nights record temperatures down to -10C. If snow gets laid down in coming days, then many will see some very cold nights next week.

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As explained in last night’s post, the first ‘potential’ for snow lies with an Atlantic front trying to push in across Ireland and the UK late Thursday/Friday but there are several aspects which will make or break the chance of snow. Depth of cold over the UK, amount of available moisture with the system, will most of the moisture evaporate as it hits the cold, dry air, will the column remain cold enough to support snow down to the surface, these are all crucial questions.

Here’s the GFS 1000-500mb thickness for Fri as the low pushes into northern Scotland.

Note the 540 line way to the south of the UK while the 528  thickness is pushing with the precip.

The bulk of the moisture appears confined to northern Scotland. Notice the corridor of moisture behind this system in the top left corner of the chart? That’s the system we need to watch for early next week.

Here’s the GFS 850 temps for Friday.

As for Monday, a low spinning up near Iceland will send a cold front into the UK during Monday and, like the system on Friday, the questions is, could this bring snow? Again, this is no easy forecast, there’s lots of complicating factors such as is the amount and depth of cold in place sufficient enough and is the push of milder Atlantic pulled in by the system strong enough to break this cold dome. What’s interesting is the low thicknesses behind the front. This would suggest enough cold air to support a spell of snow across a decent swath of Scotland.

Below is the crucial 850 pattern for Monday, note the tongue of mild air being forced north ahead of the system, thisd would bring front running rains but if you notice how cold the air is on the rear of the front, this could suggest a sharp transition to heavy snow and there’s a sharp temperature drop behind the cold front.

114 hrs

120 hrs

By 120 hours, notice the cold air rushes in on the backside, this could suggest an accummulating snow event accompanied by strong, icy northwest winds.

Even looking out ay 132 hrs, the stinging NW flow continues, keeping the UK on the cold side. This could keep a snow cover on the ground and that snowcover would help keep highs at or even slightly below freezing. Clear skies in this setup would mean very cold nights. Any wind would produce harsh windchills.

144 hrs

162 hrs

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