Energy associated with the last UK low is diving south with the jet, which is in the process of carving out an unusually deep trough. This energy flowing south will pull very cold air south which, along with dynamics, will aid in developing a low pressure system, as this system begins forming, the cold air will get wrapped in from the northwest, while warm air gets drawned north from the Sahara.

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The mixing of these two distinctly different air masses will not only deepen the low but will encourage high levels of moisture which will get pushed orographically into the south facing upslopes of the Alps. Heavy, flooding low elevations rains are likely to cause problems while major snows break out perhaps as far west as the Pyrennes and French Alps, certainly over the Italian and Swiss Alps.

Models have been bold on this for days with pressure expected to plunge into the mid-980s in mb with a tightly wound wind field. As well as the big rains and mountains snows, a howlling gale, packing localised storm force gusts will also cause issues with property damage, downing trees and power.

Here’s the GFS pressure chart for the next 72 hrs over the Med.

 

 

 

 

 
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