I have been on top of this end game to November since the beginning of the month and even extending back to September and since then stated countless times that I DID NOT believe a huge cold surge was coming but rather a fight would evolve between incoming Arctic air with Atlantic air. A few ‘milder’ runs isn’t going to derail ideas I’ve believed in since summer that easily.

While no sudden arctic deep freeze was ever outlined, I however say that by week 2 of December, there was a possibility that we could see some major cold push towards or over us following a period of Atlantic v Arctic battles which could bring some much needed snowcover. The excitment tends to cloud what was said and I want to make things clear as to where I stand with all this.

It amazes me how many live for the next model run. That can say a lot. We can all be guilty of it sometimes but there are many out there who can read a basic model run but that’s about it, that doesn’t make you a forecaster. For me, it goes much further than that.. understanding the pattern, what can happen when you’bve got a certain pattern combined with other drivers which can help you figure out what may happen BEYOND the next model run.

Don not rule out this evolving cold pattern before it’s even begun. The rest of this week will be a step down to what will be a very cold end to the week and weekend. Like i’ve said since last week, and now the BBC are confirming this, highs will struggle to hit 0C in the north, perhaps extending as far south as Manchester, London may struggle to hit 4C while lows may fall widely into the -4 to -8C territory by the weekend. It’s a step down process.

Models ‘appear’ to warm things up next week but if you look carefully, the cold air comes right back in. What’s to say that mild air isn’t slamming into a deep, firmly anchored cold pool over Ireland and the UK and rather than it raining or warming up significantly, the moisture spreads in and readily turns to snow. Models support cold air coming back in straight away. Say this ‘mild’ was actually a snowstorm waiting to happen, you would have the cold to follow up and stop it from melting.

There is often more than meets the eye when it comes to these negative hemispheric patterns where you get cold to settle in and establish, then some mild Atlantic air tries to push it. The Atlantic air will have a hard time, simply pushing in and wiping out this dense, heavy air. A period of 5-7 days of cold can often be followed by a snow event which was triggered by ‘mild’ Atlantic air trying to push in. The moisture and warmth associated with these Atlantic flows can get kicked upstairs where it cools, condenses and precipitates into the COLD, DENSE AIR below. What happens? It snows!

Anyway, take a look at the 850 temps off the Control run of the ECMWF. There’s nothing mild about this..

48 hours from now (Thursday)

This is when daytime highs THIS THURSDAY in Glasgow, Edinburgh down to Carlisle may fail to hit 0C and the 0C max temp line may extend as far south as Manchester.

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Is it just me or is those 850s growing colder??

120

Wow, by 120 hours, it’s solidly under -5C all the way down and over France.. If this plays out, many parts of the UK will be shovering Sunday! Clear skies, light winds and it’s going to get darn cold by Nov standards and especially impressive with the lack of snow on the ground.

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Interesting to see the Atlantic air trying to cut the cold over Ireland and the UK, is this it, the cold is ending Dec 3?

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Aha, this is the point i’m trying to make, look at that, milder Atlantic air appears to push in around the 3rd but moisture and warmth slamming up against an air mass that has been establishing itself for well over 100 hours won’t be easy to shift. A snowstorm may result with the return of Atlantic air, not the irradication of the cold itself and ineterestingly, the cold comes right back in. I will say this much.. Without getting carried away, I could still be off on this and the cold does end quick but at the very least you’ve got to see where I am coming from here.

This cold would come back in to help keep that snow on the ground and of course the snow will help cool the air too..