Swamped: These fields surrounding the Glastonbury Tor on the Somerset Levels are an example of just how extensive the flooding has become in the West Country (Daily Mail)
The weight of four moisture rich Atlantic lows tracking one after the other across the same region is taking it’s toll on parts of southwest and Midland England. Storm two and three have brought tremendous rains and with barely a break in between, some spots have dealt with 3-6″ of rain within just 5 days and on top of a wet summer and autumn, this, like 2009 is a worst case scenario.
Here are a few videos capturing the flood situation.
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Unfortunately for England and the flood zone, there is one last system to contend with. Once this thing is through, there will be a break from all this. The only thing is, that while it turns drier, it turns colder.
Here is the latest GFS precipitation and pressure charts for Monday.
Courtesy of MeteoGroup
As you can see the track takes this into Wales and due east across the southern half of Britain. Two areas spokes of heavy rain will affect mainly England and Wales rather than Scotland, Northern Ireland and most of Ireland.
Two areas to watch, North Wales east through the Greater Liverpool and Manchester areas across to Yorkshire and extending north into Tyneside and Co Durham. For the southern spoke of heavy precip, the Southwest extending eastwards may be significantly impacted by heavy and persistent rains. As much as 1-3 inches may accummulate over the next 24 hours in the northern branch, 1-2 inches in the southern branch and so yet more flooding is highly likely from this final system, this will make for a total of FIVE systems in 7 days.
Courtesy of MeteoGroup
Following Monday’s low and it’s clearance east, a cold northerly flow kicks in.
Here is the GFS pressure chart for Tuesday.
Courtesy of MeteoGroup
Side Note
Some of the models are now showing a warmer or less cold solution for mid week but I wouldn’t be too quick to buy into this. The reason is that as stated in yesterday’s video and write-up, the large-scale, hemisphere-wide changes going on in the upper levels with a complete flip around in the high to mid latitude pressure field and the exchange in warm and cold air north to south, south to north means touch adjustments in the physics and there is a delay in this information getting through to the modelling.
They will jump back and fourth like I say until it sees the physical adjustments.
In case you missed it. Here’s my video from last night. I still stand by this forecast.
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You were spot on with the weather in November, storms etc., hopefully December will follow suit. Joe Bastardi is calling it for cold and snow in December for the UK, we know forecasting is not an exact science but it’s like you said you have to follow the trends and not individual model runs, the time lag you talk about may not be factored into the runs, keep up the good work!