Courtesy of Mark Vogan
I trust that all you folks across the bulk of England are coping ok with all this rain. I’m seeing more and more reports of flooding once again. According to latest stats from the Met Office, the highest rain totals today so far is around 50mm at St Helen’s Apt on Isles of Scilly. By the end of the day, we’ll see a far higher total than that. As the canopy pushes into Northern England and Scotland, the core comes onto the South Coast tonight with pressure expected at around 988 mb. Trouble is the core of strongest winds are on the backside and so winds will easily gust to 70, maybe 80 mph through the Channel and up against the South Coast. Big swells will be pushed through the Channel and I imagine this will be problematic for shipping traffic.
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MeteoGroup
The models are persistent at ‘bombing’ this out over the North Sea, likely dropping pressures into the 970s. As this low pushes east, it will hook in the next low that’s dropping southeast out of the North Atlantic (NW of the UK). As it comes in, in the wake of the leading system, this allows the ridge in the central Atlantic to expand north to join up with another high already over Greenland.
During Monday the second system exits and as it does so and the high builds north, this closes the door to mild Atlantic air, and we see a direct discharge of ARCTIC air. The question I’m asking is, could we see backend snows with the exiting low as it pulls in the cold?
MeteoGroup
As we progress through next week, the latest GFS shows the high itself building into the UK. But do not panic. The mild SW flow is well to our west, we are on the cold, eastern side of the high. Remember, winds blow clockwise around high’s unlike low’s and so with a high to our west, these winds blow from the Azores all the way up to the arctic and come back south into the UK with cold ARCTIC air. Right now, it’s looking dry, sunny but rather cold. How cold? Days mid next week will struggle to hit freezing while under clear skies and light winds with VERY COLD air upstairs, we’re going to see severe frosts set in. -6 to -10C easily away from towns and cities next week while towns and cities may even get into the -6 to -8C range. If there was snow on the ground, then -12 or lower away from towns and cities.
MeteoGroup
The thing is here, models struggle to see the vast alteration going on in the atmosphere so expect a back and forth over the next several days. The moral though is that it’s going to be cold, may headache is whether moisture is available for snow production.
MeteoGroup
MeteoGroup
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As I see it, it’s all about that canadian low pressure 96-120 hours out just east of Newfoundland. Will it move northwards or will it move eastwards while deepening ang gaining energy. The last is what might collapse the block. What I don’t is that UKMO is not picking up on this new signal. Are EC and GFS underestimating the blocks ability to withstand? Or is UKMO wrong? Also worth considering – the GFS ensemble mean is still below average, so even though GFS has moved in the direction of EC it’s apparently not supported by all of tis members. Well, just my thoughts on todays model output.
EC 12Z tonight is a setback. Also the ensembles. It seems a certain percentage of its members want the low near Greenland to come with much energy and collapse the block next week. UKMO and GFS are cold, but the GFS operational is a cold outlier compared to the rest of the ensembles.
All that being said I want to see this solution in EC again tomorrow, before I’ll regard it as a trend. Also I want to see the other big models join the choir. I am not convinced – simply because the overall trend has been block over the Atlantic for a rather long time now. And now EC just disregards it and lets the Atlantic kick off? I believe what you say about the models having a hard time figuring out what is to happen. At least I want to see a more established trend in the models for a more zonal pattern, before I buy it. What is your take on it, Mark?
Great video Mark. I think the only GFS run that has actually not been “knocked for six” by these vast changes is the 18z. As you said most of the runs “can’t handle” the big shift too well but the 18z has been pretty consistent. Any idea why?
It’s looking very good with the cold, Mark. Though the operational runs, particularly the GFS, have struggled a lot today, the ensembles have looked consistently cold and the NAO and AO indices have been negative all along. It’s looking very very promising.
I am sorry about your wild weather in Great Britain at the moment. Normally I am a wild weather buff and would enjoy such conditions, but when it comes to destruction with flooding and fallen trees and such it’s no fun. Hopefully you’ll all cope with it.