Well the arctic air has well and truely arrived in the Midwest with temperatures this afternoon a solid 30 below what they were yesterday. Minneapolis is stuck at 25 while Chicago rose to 31 and is now dropping, on their way to the teens tonight quite possibly.

As the the trough slides east, biitter northwest winds blowing across the still warm waters of the Great Lakes tonight will set the stage for the first major lake effect snow event of the season and so if you live in the downwind areas of Indiana, Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania and New York, espect anywhere from 1-2 inches in the weakest bands to over a foot in other, more favourable areas.

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The cold arrives in the Northeast tomorrow. Highs will be stuck in the 30s over the interior while the Big Cities may struggle to hit 40 themselves. Factor in a stiff wind and it will feel like it’s in the low 30s for the cities, 20s and teens over the interior. Snow showers may be spotted tomorrow pretty much anywhere in the Northeast.

On Sunday, the core of coldest air reaches the coast and so I expect highs from Philadelphia to Boston to be stuck in the 30s, wind chills in the 20s while interior areas may see highs in the 20s, wc’s in the teens, perhaps single digits.

BTW, I still believe there may be a struggle to hit 32 in Chicago tomorrow with wind chills stuck in the teens and 20s for a good part of the day and for New York City and Boston, it may stick in the mid-30s Sunday afternoon, 38 at Philadelphia and 40 at DC.

Below is a screen capture of the East Coast upper pattern off the ECMWF for Sunday.

 

As for next week’s snowstorm potential. The ECMWF isn’t really buying the idea much at all but I would be surpassed if it stays this way. With the amount of return cold back into the heart of the nation followed arctic air no. 1, I find it hard to see no storm forming along the southern boundary.

Another reason why I struggle to not see any system going to the Mid-Atlantic coast is the fact we’ve a TANKING NAO which would favour a deepening trough into the Southeast. While a Chicago snowstorm may not be as well favoured (due to a more southern formation of the low and the core of moisture remains off to the south and east, I believe a system will get going and the latest run of the GFS buys that idea. Check out the precip forecast for Tuesday and Wednesday.

Notice the amount of moisture it generates well to the south, this indicatyes a storm going off the coast SOUTH of the Big Cities. The 540 line is also well south too, so right now it looks like the Windy City is left out in the cold, that doesn’t mean it can’t snow of course.

The big question is does it snow in the Big Cities, have the system tracking too far south and they miss out, too far north and it’s rain. I certainly do not think this is rain and if anything it would more likely to too far south. As it stands, N, NE winds crank with the moisture shiield spreading north into plenty of cold air, potentially as far south as DC and certainly up into Philly and New York. As it stands, I believe they could well see a covering of snow from they, perhaps a 3-6 inch snow.

Notice the 540 line dangling right over Philly on Tuesday.

Notice by Wednesday, how the model sees the low sweeping off the South Jersey coast and the 540 line dropping south on the backside, Philly and DC while they may start out as rain may see a turnaround to snow while NYC gets mostly, if not all snow. Boston may be too far north as core of precip stays further south. Philly sits right on the rain-snow line.

More tomorrow!

 

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