All week and even earlier I have been beating the drum of the dramatic flip from abnormally mild or warm to below normal cold with snow for the Windy City and other points. Check out the numbers for Friday! Also check out the temperatures for Minneapolis. Bare in mind that Rochester, MN recorded it’s latest 70 on record, so we have quite the flip going on in these later stages of November.

The tricky aspect may be the warm dome over the Southwest which may well raise heights over the West and even Plains, helping deflect the arctic air east quicker, so really only the Northern Tier gets the true cold stuff over the next 7-10.

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The past couple of days has been dramatic in the warmth we’ve seen, records falling here and there for warmth. The powerful west-east Pacific jet has really done a work at significantly warming the air off the Front Range out onto the Plains through downslope compression. Of course we had mid to upper 70s in western South Dakota and I wouldn’t be surprised if there was a near 80 in there somewhere too.

Wild times are ahead and like I’ve been hammering home the point in my US posts, the door doesn’t just get thrown wide open and the motherlode of arctic air just sweeps on down, but it will come in waves.

Here’s your Black Friday forecast off TWC.

and following a cold day, the coldest night of the season comes.

Here’s the ECMWF for the next 10 days, notice how stronger heights keep the cold drive east, rather than south, deep into the Lower 48, I think with time, the arctic air will progress further and further south. The potential remains for a few inches of snow at least for Chicago, Detroit, Pittsburgh and eventually a corridor from Philly up to Boston. The GFS is kicking the trough east far too quick, why? look at the NAO and how negative it’s going, the trough in all honestly I think is deeper in the east and the arctic air gets further south than even the ECMWF has it right now and so the low tracks more up the Atlantic coast rather than just east of the Great Lakes.

Above is of course Friday, highs will be stuck in the teens across northern North Dakota and Minnesota and with clear skies, light winds Friday night, we’re going to see sub-0F and the first negative lows in N. Minn.

Saturday will see the high in Chicago held near freezing following a low near 20. Expect snow showers to fly on that cold NW wind. The arctic air Saturday gets close to the Big NE Cities, the interior may hold in the 20s most of the day with night lows dropping into the teens.

Of course, areas downwind of the GL will see the first big lake effect snow with anywhere from an inch to 14 inches depending upon where those bands set up, the air will be plenty cold coming across those still warm waters.

By Sunday, wrap up warm if your in the Big Cities. I think DC will be stuck near 40 while Philly up to Boston holds at 33 or 34F all day with WC’s stuck in the 20s.

Here’s Sunday!

As for next week, well arctic air ‘lobe’ one kicks out but another, stronger shot comes down, check out those purples.. makes me shiver just looking at this! This BTW will get further south and with a storm developing at the base of the trough, the rain-snowline, while close to CHI, DET, PIT, PHL, NYC etc, I think the system’s track stays further south and Chicago will get a few inches out of this.

With this next shot mid next week, I expect HIGHS in the SINGLE DIGITS for ND, N Minn with lows getting below -10!

The above chart is next Friday, that’s heck of a cold shot riding across the Lakes. This will likely bring a bigger lake effect outbreak with 1-2 FEET for downwind areas of IN, MI, OH, PA, NY.

Above in Saturday and I expect HIGHS in the Big Cities to hold in the 20s with lows in the teens. BTW, back west and Chicago may push 10F for a low.

More on next week’s snowstorm potential from Chicago to NYC later Friday. Follow my updates on facebook and twitter. Click on the buttons above.
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