Unfortunately, it’s not just a blip in the models but it’s coming, two of them to be precise! Yep, more rain, more flooding, more ‘stormy hardship’ for us to deal with over the next few days starting tomorrow. The trouble is, all those flooded fields will become skating rinks later next week and beyond as the arctic hound comes acalling to end the month. We had similar hardship in November 2009 with similar flooding and of course we had the devastation in Cumbria, what followed that year was a period of snow then harsh cold but it came later in in December. The next 10 days will be very interesting and I think once the stage is set and we have strong high latitude blocking like the NAO/AO ensembles are suggesting, then we may find ourselves rather cold for a considerable period of time. Duration of the coming cold is still uncertain at this time.

[s2If current_user_can(access_s2member_level1)]

The additional rainfall from a further two SW’erly tracking depressions will exasberate the flooding problems up and down the country and don’t be surprised if we see yet more river bursts, homes flooded, road closures, landslides and other things we’ve had to contend with in the last 5 days.

The first low will sweep up from the southwest with pressure near 995 mb on Sunday, bringing not only additional heavy rains but gale-force winds too, moreso along the South Coast, the second low follows the same path directly on it’s heels. However, while these lows cross land Sunday and Monday, preceeding rains will spread northwards over the UK tomorrow but the worst appears to stay south of Scotland and east of Ireland. I believe further flooding is a given for parts of England and Wales considering the lack of  drainage space available for this extra rainfall. In fact the rains ion some spots will be falling on flooding anyway, this will merely worsen the flooding already in place. The ground simply cannot absorb any more moisture and that’s the problem with this.

Here’s the GFS precipitation charts.

Certainly from looking at this latest run, the worst of the rain should focus on England and Wales while Ireland, Northern Ireland and Scotland appear to escape the majority, however, there is likely to be some rain but nothing on par with what we’ve seen. The rain in the south may not be quite as severe as recent days, however this could present a period of several hours of steady and periodic heavy bursts of rain. Watch local river levels!

Monday.

While the GFS may not be handling the precipitation aspect, going by this model, the rains appear less threatening with the second system and largely fragments as it spreads across mostly England and Wales. Intense rains may initially impact parts of southern and eastern Ireland and Wales but quickly breaks in intensity as it spreads inland. Again, much of Ireland, Northern Ireland and Scotland appear to escape the worst.

Here’s the GFS pressure charts for Sunday and Monday.. Spot the difference?

Sunday

Monday

[/s2If][s2If current_user_is(s2member_level0)]

Join a subscription plan, [s2Get constant=”S2MEMBER_CURRENT_USER_DISPLAY_NAME” /]!

[warning]You do not have a valid subscription to access premium content exclusive to members. You will need to join a subscription plan if you would like to continue.[/warning][/s2If][s2If !is_user_logged_in()]

Sign in to read the full forecast…

Not yet a member? Start your 7 day free trial

Create your free markvoganweather.com account today to get unlimited access to Mark Vogan’s premium articles, video forecasts and expert analysis for 7 days.
[/s2If]