As predicted  from early last week, the UK and Ireland has entered the most active weather period of the month with a string of Atlantic depressions lining up to sweep their vigorous fronts (slowly from west to east) across the country. As many as three systems will swing a heavy, persistent band of rain across Ireland and the UK along with strong, gusty winds this week and with flooding already happening in many areas, this is the concern and set-up I’ve had since September and extending back to August.This set-up will keep the flood risk high all week, especially in eastern Ireland and the western UK. In just the past 12-18 hours, Glasgow has already recorded 50mm of rain. We may see a further 50mm fall by weekes end. Some southwest exposed upslopes may collect 150+mm by Friday night.Like I say, many parts of Ireland, western and central Scotland are already contending with flooding following the passage of front 1 of 3. The good news is that as this front works east, it’s intensity eases, so rains won’t be as heavy or organised in more eastern parts but winds will still be fresh and blustery. Behind the front, heavy showers with a risk of hail, thunder and locally strong winds will be the issue.

Winds are always strongest in western areas with gales along Irish and western UK coasts as well as the south coast of Wales and England. This will bring disruption to shipping today and unfortunately this is just the beginning of a rough week ahead.

Temperatures will be cool east of the front but along and behind it, mild air flows up from the south so while cloudy, wet and windy, it’s not cold by any means with highs of 11-14C with an odd 15C somewhere.

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As many as three very active frontal systems will sweep heavy rains and strong to gale-force southwest winds across Ireland and the UK with the second system arriving as early as late tonight across Southwest England, Wales and eventually western Scotland. These rains turn heavy as the next band works up from the southwest tonight. Heavy, drenching rains will fall sideways in strong to gale-force winds. This next wave of weather will further add to the shipping woes of today up and down the Irish Sea and North Channel as 60 to perhaps 70 mph winds generate large southerly swells. Exposed coasts can expect wind gusts of 60, perhaps 70 mph with gusts to 40+ even across inland western parts. Localised flooding, serious surface spray will cause driving headaches overnight tonight and through Tuesday AM.

Like with the first front, the organisation of the rain band will fragment some as it spreads east with rains turning more showery to the east of the Pennines but heavy bursts could drop enough rain (10-20mm) to cause local flooding.

As you can clearly see from the above precip and pressure charts, the first systems exits and following immediately behind is the next low with pressure dropping into the 970s. The reason for the due NE track is the ridge over Europe which is acting like a block. You can see in with the red isobars in the above chart. This is what is driving bigger rains and stronger SW winds, the pressure difference is tightening up the pressure gradient and drawing moisture from the warmer sub-tropical source region.

Greatest Flood Risk Comes Late Week! 100mm May Fall in Parts of Ireland, NI and W Scotland

As for Wednesday, we see brief respite but it’s not going to last long. It’s the system and front next in the line that I am most worried about. Modelling since last week has been pretty consistent with bringing up a narrow but intense band of rain which has origins extending all the way south and beyond the Azores. This SLOW MOVING band could bring the greatest risk of flooding to several parts of Ireland and the UK starting later Wednesday through Thursday. This intense rain band may bring 100mm of rainfall to parts of Ireland, Northern Ireland and the western side of Scotland, perhaps extending into Cumbria.

As well as the flood risk, comes strong to gale-force winds once again. Wet ground and the persistency of SW winds may make it easy for this system to bring down trees, may even cut power to places.

Check out these pressure and precip charts.

 

 

Of course when combining the 3 systems and all the rainfall they will bring, we could see rainfall totals which rivalled some of the bigger rain events back in September with some spots topping near to 200mm over a 5 day period. REemember what was said back in September about the concern for flooding rains and storminess? Where it rains most in November can be where the cold air will go to later down the road!!

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