Over the next 10 days we appear set to see ‘several’ lows of varying intensity cross Ireland and the UK, as well as bringing the usual wet and windy weather, I am expecting pretty sizeable swings in temperature ahead and behind the main cold front.

This is the next phase in my November idea. I expected the NAO/AO to flip positive, providing a period of mild but unsettled weather. We have now seen the gloomy, persistent wet but very mild period which was alluded to back in Sept with a link to a similar setup we saw in Nov 09′ in which a long-fetch, plume of subtropical air flowed straight from the heart of the central Atlantic to UK, of course it was extreme in Nov 09′ with Cumbria breaking a UK record for 24-hour rainfall. I feared a ‘similar’ setup could occur this year along with very mild air. This has happened and the overall setup, while now changing is aligning with my next idea for this month and that is an increase in storminess and possibility of seeing some deep depressions which could bring widespread gales and heavy, flooding rains.

The models suggest we are now entering that period and it’s going to be interesting to watch over the next 10 days what we get.

For those who have just signed up, you can go back and check out my autumn forecast and particularly my November idea which I correlate and link to November 2009
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I want to draw your attention firstly to the first GFS pressure chart at the top. Note the developing low near Bermuda (very bottom left hand corner), marked with a black isobar and pressure set at 1015. This is the system which is projected to cross Scotland this weekend would you believe!

The two charts below show this low’s progress across the N. Atlantic. This low rides the jet over top of the Mid-Atlantic ridge.

Accuracy with this low’s pressure and track should be further up the line given that it’s only looking out 90 hours from now but there are still changes likely in the overall outcome of this system. The GFS isn’t the best when it comes to position of ridges, troughs and timing. This will bring wind and rain but why I wanted to show you this was because of it’s origins. We see many charts as lows cross the UK but where do they form? Thought this was kinda interesting.

What’s interesting is that as that low pushes east, watch out of a coldlash of quite cold air, hill snows are possible along with a brief lowering of the snow line. A secondary low spins up SW of Ireland and crosses the UK so this will bring more rain along with wind. Behind it, a surface high builds in so early next week should see nice weather with bright or sunny days, cold, frosty nights.

By mid next week, the GFS has a deepening, ‘large’ area of low pressure sprawlling out over the Northeast Atlantic to the south of Iceland, west of the UK, pressure is expected to drop to 955 mb. While this low may bring direct weather to the UK with a cold front sweeping through, it’s the low’s in which spawn on the underside of this main low which will likely have more direct impacts as they cross the UK from a ‘mild’ SW direct.

Notice in the above chart, the indentation over the Bay of Biscay on the SE edge of the 955 mb storm centre? That spins up a low and quickly crosses the southern UK.

Next Thursday.

Saturday-Sunday.

By next weekend, another low gets spawned on the underside of this, now weakening low, again pressures are generally in the 990s in mb.

When looking out 10 days from now, accuracy is pretty low but it’s fun to look at and worth paying attention to what’s going on. As you know, I like to look and show you EVERYTHING and not just one or two aspects. The not so exciting things can have big consequences down the road and so worth looking at this stuff.

Also notice the high seen to build over Greenland next weekend. Interesting. Big thing worth pointing out is that while the NAO is going negative, the AO is staying possive for now, so don’t expect a sudden blast of winter.. hey don’t panic… The arctic air is locked up for the time being but it’s building all the time and the good news is that the AO is projected to go negative towards the end of November and if the NAO holds and drops even lower into negative territory, then lots of winter will be just around the corner.

The point in this post is that we will have a very active, Atlantic pattern over the next 10-14 days but while we get tired of seeing rain, cloudy and wind, the seeds are being sown for December. This same, ‘annoying’, dreary, gloomy setup occured in November 2009 and we all know what followed!
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