The latest low to progress west to east between Iceland and Scotland will swing a cold front across Scotland tonight and the rest of the UK tomorrow bringing wind and rain.

With the NAO trending firmly into positive territory, the up and down theme with emphasis on an ‘Atlantic driven’ flow looks to continue for the next 10 days at least.

Worth pointing out that while the NAO is heading sharply positive, latest ensembles show it heading sharply negative during the second half of the month. That would be no surprise. What I will say is this.. it’s all in the timing, but IF this tanks sharply negative like it’s suggesting, then look out. I have circled Dec 10th as a period to watch closely, however, really from the start of next month, the ground work should have been laid.

It’s important to show you what I am seeing. By subscribing, I try to provide you with a deeper look into the meteorology, not a mere scratch at the surface. Like I stated in yesterday’s post. It’s not just about looking at all the various models or indexes, but it’s recognising what it’s saying. A few followers appeared to panic at the thought of this return to positive, but, when you look at the negative trend in the NAO and it’s behaviour, then that’s enough to tell you that it WILL GO BACK, the question is when, not if. The mere fact that it’s now already showing a return to negative, proves my point. If I am being blunt, you can see all around you the lack of understanding when you see some so called forecasters, who throw up a forecast and ‘wishcast’ a cold winter. They themselves don’t understand it when the NAO goes positive and their November cold idea gets thrown out the window before the month even gets started. You will see them jump from one thing to another. The trouble is, there is no explanation, no evidence to back up their ideas. Even if I get it wrong and I know I will at times, I will explain where it went wrong.

The groundwork to my winter forecast is done, it’s now a wait and see game…

Until the cold arrives, we’ll just need to content ourselves with the classic late autumn setup we’ve become so used to. Over the next 10 days, I see a series of lows bringing wind and rain across the UK. Remember what I’ve said though, with Greenland turning cold with this setup, watch for backlash cold once those lows swing east! After this front sweeps through over the next 36 hours, you’ll notice the colder feeling air with a NW wind back in play. Watch for frost returning more widely early next week, in between lows.

I’ve taken 3 GFS charts to show the general idea of our pattern through next week. Interestingly, this model shows a large high developing over Europe next week which may try to extend into the southern half of the UK. We may find ourselves in the battle ground between a large ridge over the continent, supporting temps 5-10C above normal, with a huge vortex of low pressure which will cover the majority of the North Atlantic. Big rains along a stalled or slow moving boundary next week?