Over an inch of rain fell in Atlanta, GA overnight thanks to the very system which will drift off the Southeast coast tonight into tomorrow morning. The first of two disturbances will have rounded the base of the trough and will commence it’s northward journey paralleling the Eastern Seaboard deepening as it does so. The second piece of energy, riding the jet down through the Lower Midwest will catch up with the developing coastal storm and ‘phase’, allowing the coastal low to ‘bomb out’.

Latest models show the track further EAST, in other words, it looks to stay further off the coast. That means a few things. 1) strongest winds, heaviest rains and snows would all shift east too. Does that mean Sandy hit areas can rest easier? Unfortunately no. While strongest winds may well remain offshore now. i.e, hurricane-force, however, still damaging 50-60+mph gusts are still likely from Atlantic City to Cape Cod. The good news in the wind department may be that really once your inland, winds may not be nearly as strong, perhaps gusting to only 30 or at most 40 mph. Given that trees and even buildings could be weakened, further trees could be downed and power may be cut.

My greatest concern is the still 2-5 foot surge coming ashore at high tide which could well produce further coastal flooding and damage along an already devastated coastline.

As it currently stands, a further east track would also keep heaviest rains offshore which is good news but we may still see flooding rains in low lying areas between I-95 and the coast anywhere from DC to Providence.

So to summarise, if you live on the coast, be prepared for potentially more coastal flooding with a small threat of further property damage if your property is already damaged as well as the threat of further tree damage and power loss.

If you live inland, effects should be greatly reduced. The greatest impacts will be blustery, cold winds and squally showers. The greatest threat for inland areas will be colder air and snow potential.

Further East Track Means Greater Chance For Snow In Big Cities, Coast

A further east tracked storm, would mean that the interior areas from eastern PA up through New England is likely to see less snow now BUT, the more populated areas of far eastern PA, up through the Catskills, Connecticut, Massachusetts, Vermont, New Hampshire and Maine could see a widespread swath of 2-4, locally 6 inches.

There will be probably a few periods in which rain switches to snow, then back to rain, then back to snow from the I-95 corridor to Atlantic coast.

The major cities from Philadelphia up through New York and Hartford may see an accumulating snow of 1-3 inches with the best chance for accumulation in Philadelphia. The latest run of the ECMWF printed out a foot of snow for Philadelphia. Not that’s likely to happen but interesting nonetheless.

Even on the coast, you may very well see snow out of this and it wouldn’t completely surprise  me to see it accumulate.

This storm will be cold with highs likely to struggle to hit 40, factor in a strong to gale-force wind and it’s likely to feel near freezing all day with low 20s, even upper teens at night.

Greatest impacts for this Nor’easter will be in NYC with gales, potential for 50+mph gusts Wednesday night, a period of heavy rain and snow, a high near 40, WC around freezing. Ouch..

Heavy wet snow, combined with gusty winds and a weakened power grid could lead to further outages.

Here’s the latest NAO Ensemble. Why am I showing you this?

Notice it’s trend back into positive territory. This means a break with better weather and much warmer air is coming. Saturday won’t be particularly warm, 50s.. But Sunday on into next week and I expect 60s and even 70s return!