The very region hardest hit from Sandy exactly a week ago today, braces itself for another hit. This time from a regular but powerful Nor’easter. This storm will certainly pack a punch and more so than you would typically see given the weakened infrastructure, coastline, beaches, buildings, trees and power grid particularly across New Jersey, New York and Long Island.

It won’t take much for coastal flooding reoccur when your talking winds in excess of 30 mph sustained gusts to 50 or 60 mph blowing out of the northeast. This piles a much smaller 2-4 foot surge but, drive that up against dune-less beaches means no protection from yet more coastal flooding and over wash. The ocean will likely get inland again, thankfully nothing like what we saw with Sandy.

Meteorology & Impacts

A trough has been anchored over the Eastern US now since last weekend, keeping things chilly while ridging keeps the West and particularly the Southwest warm. There are two disturbances that are needing to be closely monitored. The first disturbance is now visible and active over the Mississippi Valley bringing rain, the other is now entering the Pacific Northwest.

The leading system will eventually head off the Virginia coast tomorrow and form a low pressure centre. As it does so, the second upper level disturbance will eventually catch up with the first feature allowing it to intensify or ‘bomb out’ as it lifts north. As this storm advances north, paralleling the coast, it will spread a shield of rain into Delaware, New Jersey, New York and eventually , southern New England.

Winds will also strengthen out of the east, northeast. How strong depends upon how close and how strong the storm gets. Models suggest this coastal storm will drop below 980 mb and could produce 50-60 mph gusts directly into Sandy-ravaged NJ, NY and Long Island.

With structures, power lines and trees weakened by Sandy, further damage and power loss is likely.

Wind

As stated, winds are likely to blow hard along the coast with gusts of 50-60 mph, we may see some locally higher gusts in exposed areas such as the northern tip of Long Island, perhaps Sandy Hook, NJ.

Elsewhere winds are likely to gust to between 30-45 mph, locally 50 mph in exposed areas. These gusts include New York and Boston, perhaps 30+ in DC, Baltimore up through Philadelphia and Trenton.

Rain

Rains will be heavy and persistent with a widespread 1-3 inches up and down the coastal plain.

Snow

The rain/snow line is likely to slide east by later Thursday as the storm is centred more off Cape Cod and colder air begins to wrap around more. A corridor of 4-8 inches from south-central Pennsylvania up through the Catskills of New York to the Berkshires of Massachusetts is likely between late Wednesday and early Friday, A rain, sleet mix can’t be ruled out late on in New York and particularly Boston as daytime highs Friday may struggle to hit 40.

Wind chills

The combination of daytime highs in the 40s up the I-95 and 30s further west with gales, means wind chills will be near freezing or below.

A Look At The GFS 500 Mb Heights & Geo Absolute Vorticity

Here are a series of charts from the GFS Operational which shows the two disturbances and how the second piece of energy, which is stronger, catches up and aids in significantly deepening the feature in a powerful, sub-980 mb coastal storm.

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