No matter how strong a storm on the East Coast is next week, this will be a problem due to the significant vulnerability across the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic following Sandy.

Damaged trees, property, lack of power and lack of protective sand dunes mean even the weakest of coastal storms could bring more disruption, damage and heartache problems.

The dangers from this storm, which could be a substantial Nor’easter, is coastal flooding brought by a 2-4 foot storm surge and heavy rainfall. Battering wave action and strong winds could easily bring further damage to properties. Trouble is, temperatures are going to be chilly with this system as the storm forms off the coast and rides north, meaning colder air slides down from Canada and the Great Lakes.

Heavy snows look likely to impact a large swath of the interior. The rain/snow line may get close to the Big Cities. A widespread swath of 3-6 inches is possible with a narrow band of 6-12 inches.

Temperatures even in the cities from DC to Boston may hold in the 40s with 30s throughout the Interior.

Widespread gales and possibly storm-force coastal winds mean potential for yet more tidal flooding misery, heavy rains along the coastal plain and interior snows.

Millions remain powerless and I really hope power can get restored to many more by next Wednesday, Thursday. This may not be the storm you want to remain without power through. The grid is significantly weakened along with the infrastructure so this storm has potential to cause headaches.

Until then, it’s going to be chilly by day and cold by night.

The Pacific Northwest storm train is kicking in and it is the second of two systems which the models are picking up on as the East Coast storm mid next week. Until then, a cold high builds south into the trough and so, while highs are in the 40s and 50s for most by day, clear skies and light winds and low thicknesses suggest a couple of very cold nights Monday and Tuesday night region-wide. The first sub-freezing lows may occur in the cities with lows away from the urban heat island in the 20s. Teens could shiver the interior. Possibly the first single digits up in northern New England. Not good for those who continue to suffer without power.

This storm coincides with the -NAO but the good news appears to be that AFTER this storm comes and goes, hopefully we’ll start to see some recovery in temperatures with ridging replacing this stubborn troughiness. The NAO is expected to flip back to at least neutral if not positive within the next 7-10 days.

Here’s the latest NAO Ensemble forecast…

Check out the ECMWF chart for next Sunday.

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