Following several days of fighting dry air and shear from an upper low to the west, now it’s shear from the north due to a high which continues to keep Leslie as a 992mb, 65 mph tropical storm. Over the next 2-4 days we are going to start seeing Leslie organise more as conditions over and around the system improve. Shear should relax as the next trough approaches the US East Coast from the west. This will push the ridge to the north of Leslie eastwards and with more of a steering flow kicking in with intensification of high pressure to Leslie’s east and the advance of the trough from the west, this present Leslie with that shove from the south, southeast that she needs, Leslie should begin to speed up and head for Bermuda but unfortunately the improving environment and gradual speed up of Leslie does mean she is likely to grow into a hurricane and with still plenty of time before reaching Bermuda, Leslie could become quite strong. I am fearful that with Leslie, it could be like the lid popping after such surpression from dry air and shear.
As you can see from my forecast track above, I expect Leslie’s centre to pass within 50 miles of Bermuda, which is the worst side to be on. I have Leslie as a strong cat 2 or possibly 3 storm by late Saturday as she passes close by. That close from the centre and the size of the storm means that this could bring very nasty conditions to Bermuda.
Courtesy of NOAA
Leslie is not likely to be as intense as Fabian on Bermuda but slower movement at strong cat 2/weak 3 intensity may mean worse impact
Interestingly, Bermuda has seen 14 hurricanes pass within 100 miles in the past 50 years, only Fabian in 2003 was a major storm, packing winds of 145 mph but unlike Fabian, Leslie should be a much slower mover and with winds possibly packing 110-115 mph, waves of 20-30 feet slamming the south shore, this could be the worst storm since Fabian and if it were to be a strong 2 or weak 3 and it’s slower movinbg, then Leslie may in fact have worse impacts on Bermuda than Fabian did despite winds not likely to be as strong. The long duration of hurricane-force conditions may have a worse impact from a damage perspective.
Ok, so you see my track, now take a look at these SST anomalies. Remember, these are temperature departures from normal and not SST’s. Notice the unusually warm waters south of Nova Scotia and surrounding Newfoundland. These are the worst places to have such abnormal warmth given where Leslie is positioned and the pattern evolution over the next 5 days.
Once Leslie strikes Bermuda, the trough will dig into the Southeast US while the high to her north gets pushed east. This will open the northern door which will likely take Leslie on a slightly bending path north, passing the New England coast by some 200+ miles but impacts along the coast could be big with huge waves slamming the shore and this could cause serious beach erosion and dangerous rip currents.
Leslie should take aim at western Nova Scotia but speeding up all the while. The troubling situation developing perhaps by later Sunday into Monday is that once Leslie is north of Bermuda, that is when we may see this storm peak in intensity. I am going for a strong 3 of not, briefly, a weak 4. If this was to occur, given the way that the system would begin to speed up and grow faster as the trough starts to influence, it peaks, speeds up and crosses the really warm waters compared to normal all at once, this may deem a significant problem for Atlantic Canada in that the system, despite entering much cooler actual waters this far north, it may not have time to weaken from a strong 3/weak 4 before a strike. That is why I am going for a Cat 2 landfall on Nova Scotia probably Tuesday and this may outdo the impacts Hurricane Juan had on Nova Scotia back in 2003. Juan struck packing 100 mph and was one of the worst ever hurricane strikes. Ironically, Juan struck Atlantic Canada on the same year Fabian slammed Bermuda.
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