Now that meteorological summer has officially ended, The Weather Network have come up with some figures which look back at what kind of summer it’s been over Canada.
To sum it up in two words, it’s been WARM & DRY!
New Brunswick, Novia Scotia, Prince Edward Island and Newfoundland are amoungst the majority of Canada which is well down on average rainfall, why do I bring this up considering the hot, dry summer much of the continent has seen? Well if the models are anything to go by, the Maritimes of Canada could be in for a significant soaker which would likely put them ABOVE AVERAGE in about 10 days from now IF models are correct in what their saying for about 10 days out.
Leslie could take aim at Nova Scotia or Newfoundland as a hurricane a week from today and obviously flooding rains would come with the wind and surge.
A complex pattern over the next 10 days over the Western Atlantic
Dry air and SW shear from an upper low out ahead of the system is currently influencing, making it lopsided with the bulk of convection to the east of the centre. There is also a lot of dry air out ahead of the storm and this will likely stop it from intensifying to any great degree over the next 5 days.
However, what this means is, like with Isaac, Leslie will track further west and continue it’s track WNW as a weaker storm so intensification into perhaps a Cat 2 or 3 hurricane will not happen anytime soon. Unfortunately for North American interests, it would have been better if this storm bombed out sooner rather than later as it would have been picked up by the trough over the western Atlantic, keeping it offshore.
As we progress into next week, the system slows way down as the trough to the north advances east and a new trough drops down out of central Canada into the US. In between the exiting trough and the new one coming down out of Canada, there will be a region with little steering and so Leslie may stall or track at a snails pace for a few days before the next trough is felt. The concern is that this next trough pulls Leslie more west than north.
Models show a landfall or near miss with Nova Scotia next Sunday!
GFS chart (Courtesy of MeteoGroup)
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