Courtesy of the National Hurricane Center
As Tropical Storm Isaac continues to churn away in very unorganised fashion off the north coast of Cuba, the latest model guidance shows a slightly more westward track over the Gulf and this is most worrying for the Greater New Orleans area. The overnight shift west means that there is greater risk of a potentially major hurricane taking aim at the mouth of the Mississippi with tremendous surge and wave action piling in from the southeast up the Mississippi and into Lake Ponchatrain. This scanario occured with Katrina with the overtopping of te levees on the north side of the city. This multiple breach caused over 80% of New Orleans to go under water and of course this is the fear, which in a worst case could happen again.
A more westward track could mean a stronger cyclone
A hurricane watch has been issued for the Gulf Coast which includes New Orleans due to the model tracks trending further west. Unfortunately, a further west track would take Isaac into an area of greater heat potential, overtop of the loop current and warmth to great depth. So, a stronger cyclone is possible. The fact that the system remains disorganised and largely unaffected by Hispaniola and Cuba, means it won’t take much for this system to suddenly wind itself up, drawing all the energy into one solid core and bang! Especially as it crosses the high heat of the Florida Straits today.
Despite little intensification during the overnight hours, there is still a chance that between now and tonight, when Isaac pushes towards and eventually through the Keys, that he suddenly intensifies, perhaps crossing the Keys as an 80 mph storm. Remember what happened with Katrina just before making landfall in South Florida. The Keys will have little if any effect on the system so he could intensify as it crosses the Keys and out into the eastern Gulf tomorrow.
Tornado watches are in effect through 5pm ET today for much of South Florida including the Keys as well as of course a Hurricane Warning.
Tornado Watches issued for South Florida including Keys (Courtesy of NOAA)
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