Since the weekend I’ve been keeping an eye on the model predictions for the Mediterranean basin into next week as the ECMWF continues to show intensifying pressure with thickness values soaring to well beyond 588dc across a broad area encompassing the central and eastern basin. With these values, this would support intense heat which the models have expanding north through Greece, the Blankans, Turkey all the way to up into far northwest Russia. While temperatures across the Mediterranean mid to late next week may well reach 100F (37C), even western Russia may soar to record breaking values topping the mid-90s F (mid-30s C).

Back just a few weeks ago we saw at least two deaths attributed to 100F heat in the Canary Islands and such heat looks likely for such holiday resort islands as Sicily, Malta, Crete, The Greek Islands across to Cyprus from Tuesday through particularly Wed, Thurs, Fri where some heights near Cyprus and Israel soar to 592dc, considered extremely high.

Those visiting the central and eastern Mediterranean up through Greece, the Blankans, Turkey, Bulgaria, Romania and Ukraine where of course the European Championships are about to kick off, should be prepared for very hot weather. Drink lots of water (not alcohol), wear high factor sunscreen, wear a hat and don’t over exert between 12-5pm, ultimately keep in shaded areas. Inland areas away from cooling sea breezes are likely to soar beyond 100F and I expect to hear of records falling from Wednesday onwards.

Here is a look at the ECMWF’s current run for next week. Notice the pressures continuing to rise throughout next week and this extends north into Russia.

 

 

 

 

 

Tags: hot weather, mediteranean heat