It’s been outlined to you since Sunday but I have been keeping an eye on this potentially stormy late week scenario since last week. I held off a few days before releasing this as a forecast in case it was just a blip. Now it’s reality and it could very well be an interesting day of weather tomorrow. I was starting to build this late week idea while most enjoyed the Jubilee weekend, despite the chill and soaking.

It’s taken a few days but high winds with potential damage and heavy rains are now in the scripts of BBC weather presenters. Today was the first I’ve heard mention about the impending weather but while a 982mb low nears us and is set to bring strong winds and heavy, possibly flooding rain, this may appear far from unusual right? However it’s June and this depth of low at this time of year is somewhat more noteworthy. I was surprised there wasn’t talk about this at the start of the week.

While this morning was a soaker for many western areas, this band transfered east, making way for heavy, thundery backside showers.

[warning]60-70 MPH WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE ALONG IRELAND’S WEST/SOUTH COASTS & THE WEST/SOUTH COAST OF WALES/ENGLAND[/warning]

By the time the low pressure is centred off the southeast coast of Ireland, gales will blow along Ireland exposed Atlantic coast with gusts likely to top 60-70 mph. The Bristol channel coast of Southwest England and Wales may also see 60-70mph along with the channel coast between Lizards Point and Brighton. Elsewhere, inland areas of western, southern Ireland and southern England/Wales may see gusts beyond 50 mph.

As the impending low works towards southern Ireland tonight, pressure will continue falling, tightening up it’s windfield and so winds should whip out of the east, southeast inititally, as the centre pushes along or just off Erie’s southeast coast, then winds bend around to a north, northwest direction and they will be stronger as the core of strongest winds will be on the west and south side of the circulation. The initial rain band arrives across southern Ireland, southwest England tonight accompanied by a stiff E, SE wind.

Between midnight and 9am I expect the heaviest rains to fall across southern Ireland, Devon, Cornwall and the South Coast of England. Then this band will work north through the morning reaching Lancashire, Cumbria, Northumberland into Southern Scotland late morning/early afternoon.

Expect a stiffening east wind which could see gusts along the North Sea coast to 50 mph or greater.

While a widespread 1-2 inches (locally 3 inches) of rain is possible across southern, central Ireland and all of the South of England, much of Wales, the windward east facing slopes of the Pennines may see over an inch of rain with local flooding, so too may the Cumbrian Fells and Southern Uplands.

Tags: cold, stormy uk weather, wet, windy