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Isle of Arran (Jan 2010) by M. Vogan
what’s already happened in a nutshell
November: Mild and Stormy
December: 1-15th Mild and Stormy 15th-31st Cold and Snowy
January 1-10th Very Cold 10-25 milder and more unsettled but the “thaw” brought average conditions not really above normal.
FEBRUARY IDEAS
After a mild November through mid-December period, a very cold pattern hit and stood firm until around Jan 10 as the Arctic Oscillation and North Atlantic Oscillation turned negative. Since then we have returned to a more “average or normal” pattern with near average temperatures but it has not really been mild in the sense of above normal temperatures like we have more typically experienced over recent winters. We have actually still witnessed snow over higher ground as well as some days struggling to get much above 5C.
The reason for the break in the cold and snow is simple, that extremity of pattern can not last forever and particularly in a location that favours mild westerlies rather than cold easterlies. The return to a positive Arctic Oscillation and North Atlantic Oscillation brought the shut down of continental cold air and opened the door to a milder Atlantic air flow. The difference however is despite the return to more Atlantic dominated weather, we remain “average” even a little cooler than average. Well certainly compared to the last 5-10 winters where mild has constituted 2-6 degrees above normal. Not near normal like we see now.
I strongly believe another period of cold and snow looms just 7-10 days away and we may well see the most snow of this winter during February here in the Central Belt. What I mean by that is that really with the exceptions of higher ground, at best, we have really only seen a maximum of between 2-4 inches of snow on the ground. A fight between Atlantic and Arctic air may produce one if not two substantial snows to the Glasgow-Edinburgh corridor. Eastbound continental air and a westbound Atlantic moisture rich flow may bring a decent 6 inch snowstorm to even the heart of Glasgow and Edinburgh between Feb 1 and 20th.
The recent “thaw” was only half time in this winter season and a secondary cold period will present the same type of issues and scenes we witnessed between Dec 20-Jan 10. The pattern is ready to return in exactly the same way as the drivers which brought the cold, are all ready to return to the Dec 20/jAN 10 state as the Arctic Oscillation and North Atlantic Oscillation flips negative once again and bitter cold and snow floods Europe again.
We remain in the HEART OF WINTER and therefore cold as severe has we have endured so far is possible during February 2010. As for folks in the USA, their likely to see the worst of winter. Eastern Asia and the heart of Europe is also ready to feel the freeze bite hard, a westerly push will arrive into Britain for the commencement of the new month.
So how cold can we get again and how long could the cold last?
That is a difficult question but what I do see is a 10-14 day period of highs struggling to get 1-3 degrees above freezing and nights that regardingly fall away into the -6 t0 -10C range. Depending on how much cold air from Siberia can drift westward depends really on the intensity of the cold we see. If we get a Siberian high and strong eastward transportation of air off the interior continent as well as a good snow cover, we may well experience similar conditions like earlier in the season. I do believe there is a chance at taking another run at the coldest days and nights of winter from Glasgow to Edinburgh and throughout the Highlands. I am not ruling out the possibility of another -20C or colder reading in one of the cold spots in the Highlands whether it be Altnaharra, Aviemore, Braemar, Tulloch Bridge or Dalwhinnie. They haven’t seen their snow dissapear up in the Grampions and I understand the region around Aviemore has still deep snow cover and have suffered problems with blowing and drifting snow over the past 2-week mild period.
I believe another very cold and snowy period is ahead and we may very well see the largest accummulation of snow for the entire winter and a Siberian High which supports “highs” as cold as -6C around Glasgow, a little lower in rural areas and nights than could fall towards -10C or even fall below the coldest we’ve seen all winter, though this would take a lot to beat but I want to lay it out, that the potentials are there. The Highlands may see another round of -15 to -18C nights with one or two that may fall below -20C and days that struggle to once again hit -10 to -12C.
What I am a little skeptical about for this cold spell will be whether it has the strength to hold unabated for 3 weeks or will it come and go more with a stronger Atlantic push which means a few milder days in between waves of bitter cold?
It’s very possible another tough 2-3 week period of winter is in store for February and if this materialized would mean one of the most severe winters in at least 100 years. Perhaps climbing within the top-5 worst of the last century. That being said, this winter despite a possible further blast of snow and cold, remains a far cry to 1947 and 1963 as well as those winters back in the 17 and 1800s. What I do believe though, is this winter as well as last winter are both back to back alarm bells and what may well be a sign of things to come. Winters of the next 30 winters may return to those of the 1800s and this may end up being a mild winter compared “near” future winters perhaps only 4 or 5 years ahead.
Thanks for reading.
-Mark
Email [email protected]
>i dont need to explain myself to anyone thanks and just so as you know my friend, I dont pay for piers' forecasts so I havent actually seen what he has said, all i worry about is what I have said, thats all. I tend to be too busy to read in between lines and find information that is or isnt there. You have yourself a great weekend!
>Well since Piers doesn't share his forecasts with those who don't pay for his non-peer reviewed work, perhaps you can shed some light on this Mr Vogan. Maybe you can send me a Piers forecast, and yours for the same period. Then I will make up my own mind.
>if you look a little more closely like evryone else and if your smart enough, there is differences between my forecast and Piers.
>Why don't you reproduce Piers' forecast for February and March as you did for December and January? That way we will all be in awe of your accurate "predictions" once more.
Sniff Sniff, respect inna area.
>I may very well be jumping the gun on a 6" or more snowstorm for the central belt, but I strongly believe more snow will hit much of the country during Feb as the pattern looks great for it. As for longer hours and stronger sunlight, yes your right, however feb can be a tough month. Once past the 15th of feb then we'll likely have past the window for sever cold in terms of your -6 to -10C range as nights are shorter and sunlight longer. indeed making it tougher for the air during the day to stay as cold as back in late dec. it will be an interesting month ahead. Thanks, Mark
>If you take into account the longer days perhaps we might just survive Snowmageddon II.