>I am sorry to say this but with the chilly wind and rains of late, leaves changing colour and even falling off the trees as the air becomes more autumnal, I look at the Tropical Atlantic and I am not excited about it this year since there is little if anything of much excitement happening. Even single storm that forms can’t either because of dry air, wind shear or cooler waters.

The overall pattern across the Atlantic with the high amount of dry air and even the slight deviation in SST’s after the extreme warmth of 2005 and weakening on the western flnk of the Atlantic ridge has meant more fish storms with small-scale sideswipe effects up the Eastern Seaboard of the US. Even though the tracks of 2009 have been further west than 2009, the parameters are similar with dry air causing major problems for storms trying to form as they progress west off the African landmass and the weakness in the western Atlantic ridge and East Coast trough, which has yet again protected the East Coast.

Both dry air and and the trough has, like 2006 protected the East from a major landfall.

This being said it’s only September 10 and there is still plenty of time for something to pop and make a threat and a serious one at the US, but right now and for a while now I have not seen anything really favourble to cause trouble to anyone.

Thanks for reading.
-Mark