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As we start to feel the fingers of autumn creep ever closer and winter just around the corner I continue to search for the signs of what winter will bring you us and the Northern Hemisphere.
If you really want to know what my thoughts are on this upcoming winter, well here it goes.
What kinda of signals have we got going for us at the present time?
-Weak El Nino… (Which quite often can bring colder, snowier wester Europe winters)
-Solar minimum which is likely brought last years colder, snowier winter to Great Britian on it’s own, even taking away the warming influence of the warm Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation.
-Cold Pacific Decadal Oscillation and the impacts of the past two North American winters and the pattern tht has shaped and evolved because of it’s influence is intensifying Arctic cold over the North Pole and then distributing it accordingly. The more widespread this Arctic air reservoir is, the easier it is for the UK to get colder!
If you look at what’s been happening across the pond in the United States and what’s forecast for the eastern half of the country, I fully anticipate a severe cold and snowy winter there and often, with a weak El Nino, this teleconnects to a similar type of winter here in the UK.
Couple that with one of the quietest periods on the sun and a solar cycle comparable to the late 1800s, early 1900s wehich brought savage Northern Hemisphere winters, then an even colder colder may be in store. I am however reluctant to go out on a limb and predict a severe winter for the UK. However going by last winters marked increase in snow and cold, the fact of a weak state El Nino and the higher amount of ice in the Arctic makes me believe we have a severe cold and snowy winter winter which could produce some of the coldest temperatures in the past decade or more. I do believe the Northeast US is in for it’s worst winter in over a decade.
2002-2003 was a cold, snowy winter and I believe a winter of that type is in the offing but an even worse winter, one that shocks much of Britain and indeed Europe and removes the idea that global warming has a firm hand in our future after 10 to 30 years of easier snowless winters could be removed.
IT IS ENEVITABLE THAT IF ONE LOOKS AT THE CORRELATION BETWEEN EARTH’S TEMPERATURE AND SOLAR CYCLES, YOU CAN SEE WHAT HAS GONE ON. AT SOLAR CYCLE LOWS LIKE WE ARE WITNESSING RIGHT NOW, NOT 30 YEARS DOWN THE ROAD WE SEE THAT WINTERS WERE EXTREMELY SEVERE AND WE WILL SEE THOSE KIND OF WINTERS RETURN. WE HAVE BECOME WIMPY, BUT THAT WILL INDEED CHANGE WITHIN THE NEXT 5-10 YEARS….
Central Europe and the eastern portion of North America will see the harshest winter in years with quite possibly some of the coldest temperatures on record challenged in some areas, but as for long periods of intense cold, I am still unsure about. Britain will see another cold winter, how cold, well a lot depends on two things, 1) how cold interior western Europe can get and 2) if we can get a widespread snow cover to lie BEFORE Arctic high pressure can move over us. Combine the two it what has been minimums around -8 to -10C last winter at best here in low lying central Scotland, could be -15C this winter, but an intense area of COLDER air must form and push over us. Even during high pressure situations moving on top of snow cover may only drop off to a minimum of -10C, but the air mass can only get so cold within itself. However, drive a more intense deeper cold air mass like what we witnessed in 2001, 2003 and of course 1995 when Glasgow hit a stunning -20C or -4F and you have severe cold and threat of pipes freezing and car car failing to start for work in the morning.
I shall produce a forecast for Europe and Britain in my next forecast update for North America on October 31.
This is just a taster of what’s on my mind these days.
Thanks for reading.
-Mark
>During winter, finding the best heating oil bargain will require some research.
Heating oil Salem
>I think even with the persistency in last winters cold which greatly surprised me given the remarkable mild pattern of the past 10 or more years with very warm winters in 06-07 and 07-08, the winter last year was in stark contrast but still didn't see those very cold nights here in Scotland, South-central England got some very cold nights that were of note but good snow cover made for that. The -19C at Aviemore was the first since 2003 but snow cover and high pressure should be able to do this most winters and that -19 may start to become more common. I think as Arctic high's become stronger over the next few years, we have a better chance at getting some marked cold nights under the right conditions but recently, we have failed not only the to high pressure over top of snow covered ground, but the actual air mass hasn't been all that cold. The past 10 to 15 years has been tough to get the central belt under -10C but a batch of winters in the mid-90s brought -12 to -15C into Glasgow, Edinburgh and inland Fife.. Those winters could be back very soon and sooner than many think IF the solar predictions come true and we get a cold Atlantic multidecadal oscillation. I am going to talk in better detail at the close of next month what I expect this winter here. There are a lot of factors this time around that could make last winters 3 decent cold spells look wimpy!! Stay tuned. Thanks to both of you for your continued support in reading my blog.
M.V
>As a resident of Scotland, most of the snow that I have experienced has come just as we moved from times of high pressure to low pressure or vice versa. Usually the transitions are too quick to have the kind of lingering snow cover you talk of.
For the good people who run the skiing industry, I hope we do get some of these trans-Siberian Kennoway winds, I hope Aviemore has enough parking spaces for the posses and the masses.
>do you feel that the minimum temperature this winter will be lower than the minimum temperature set in Lochgelly for 2008 (i.e. minus 5.3 degrees C)? And what advice would you give to the residents of Lochgelly to deal with this extreme cold if it occurs? How could they avoid frozen pipes?
Perhaps have some matches, candles and a flask of hot soup on stand-by would be handy in the event that the frosted powerlines topple?
I think this winter will be a surprise to the UK, with a large proportion of the land being snow covered for much of the season. I remember a winter as a child where Siberian winds arrived laden with snow. The blizzards were severe. And one winter, the snow drifted up to 14 feet deep in Kennoway after a weekend blizzard. The thought of such a winter whets the appetite.