>Just like during the hot decades of the 1930s and 1940s when those years displayed some of the hottest ever temperatures in recorded history, we also saw record cold in between.

The trend of earth’s temperature is going DOWN but that doesn’t mean we’re going to see cold summers as well as increasingly cold winters like the past two in which saw colder conditions in central North America which I believe is reaction to a cooling off of the Pacific. When you take into account the entire Atlantic basin, it’s warm, but the signs are there for the end game of the warm cycle as we see a cooldown in the key region, that is the tropics! A reason for lack of activity along with other factors, yes, I believe so…

OK, We saw a slow warm-up to summer across the US. Where it was warm to begin, it was a region that 1) usually sees summer arrive first (southern plains and deep south) and 2) dry ground throughout 2009 made this region a key heat region. Now that we’re entering the middle part of July, hottest time of the year for the Northern Hemisphere, we are seeing the sun do the work in pumping the sub-tropical ridges across the world. Key source regions for heat are blistering in hot weather, like they should be considering the time of year. But what I believe is important to look at is, where summer was slow to get going, is something we need to pay attention to, perhaps not if it’s a one of occurance which it isn’t because last May was one of the coldest on record in the lower48. This year, May was frigid across central Canada, keeping Hudson Bay fro melting it’s accummulated ice of a long and tougher than normal winter, this along with a persistent trough over the West this pring has aided a cold pool over the east and a ridge over the southern plains where seasonal feedback and ground feedback did it’s dirsty work. But likewise the northern tier was remaining chlled by what was going on over Canada.

Much of the Northern Hemisphere is now warm but this is the way it should be. Like during the recent hot years of the late 1990s, we saw some stunning cold records broken, as we see increased coverage of cold in winters, we still see impressive heat across the world when summer does come. The Northeast remains cool and I believe, this will illuminate the path to where winter will roam in 09-10. As I’ve said before, I don’t expect an ice age to just arrive overnight. The western portion of North America I believe will end this upcoming winter warm overall, but the east and far eastern US will see significantly colder than the past several winters where it has been warm, thanks in part by the warm waters off the east coast. As the Atlantic cools, we will see stronger cold and less moderation of cold, this may take another 5-10 years but each winter may chip away at the warmth.

The Northeast cold is a mere illustration is balancing out earth’s energy budget, we need cool somewhere to support heat somewhere else. This time of year you can bet your bottom dollar at WHERE that major heat will occur. If it isn’t where the normal heat cores set up year in and year out, it’s where it’s been persistently dry, a region locked in the same pattern for the starting months that lead into the warm season.

Canada remains cool across the north, that won’t warm despite major heat across the western US and southern plains, as the summer goes on, the north of the continent will start to cool with much greater ease since there’s more ice on the Arctic Ocean and Hudson Bay than recent years.

The extreme heat even (purely of 117 degrees, beating major heat waves of the past 10 years) was a small event, created by a large-scale cool pattern across the northern half of North America which I believe tightend the normally weak, summer jet and enhanced subsidence over Oklahoma, BUT this extreme heat event in Oklahoma was created within a large scale, hemisphere-wide warming event, matured by the seasonal fluctuations in sub-tropical highs and powerful solar energy imput.

How much of this heat will be blamed on global warming, when it’s a mere reaction to a typical seasonal event globally. Your always going to get heat, just the same as your always going to get cool during the warmest years. Evidence shows a cooling down of the earth, even when we see short term (seasonal) heat.

Thanks for reading.

– Mark