>Mark Vogan’s Full Summer Forecast 2009
Posted by: Mark83 (IP Logged)
Date: April 28, 2009 12:19PM
Forecast for Summer of 2009 Full Version By Mark Vogan Released: April 22, 2009

AN OVERALL COOLER SUMMER NATIONWIDE WITH HOTTER CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE PLAINS THAN RECENT YEARS, AVERAGE FOR THE WEST, COOLER FROM SOUTHEAST TO NORTHEAST FOR THE JUNE-AUGUST PERIOD… SOUTHERN PLAINS TO GREAT BASIN WILL ENDURE CORE OF HEAT THIS SUMMER

I believe anywhere from Phoenix to El Paso to Alliance, NE will endure the core of this summers heat where the center of the Four Corners high over this three point region. This ridge will pulse throughout the June through August period with weakening and strenghening, potential heat waves may occur when we see a fairly active ridge, trough pattern setup to the north of the Southwest-Great Basin high, meaning unsettled summer ahead for the Pacific Northwest through British Columbia (periods of cool, foggy even wet periods from Vancouver to Seattle to Portland) but also warm periods when the Southwest ridge pumps up and expands, this unsettled weather will progress cross-country into the Lakes and finally Northeast-Mid-Atlantic. I am watching for a July heatwave which could send highs to 115 for both Las Vegas and Phoenix. Death Valley’s peak this summer may top off around 127 degrees, down from July 2007’s 129 degrees. The Plains will be the place to watch this summer for extreme heat with OK and KS looking like the place to be for (departures from normal) where I expect high’s to get towards 110 or higher at some point this summer.

GREAT PLAINS TO HAVE A SEESAW SUMMER OF COOL AND WARM
With lingering wetness this spring across the Great Lakes, I have trimmed back my ideas of a hot overall summer, however I still hold on to the idea that we will see a hotter summer, particularly for extremes from Rapid City to Chicago to Minneapolis where a July heat wave could occur thanks to blistering heat set up over the Southern Plains where high’s will be topping 100 from El Paso to OK City, a ridge may expand into the Lakes bringing Chicago and Minneapolis, the first flirt with 100 since 2006. However a stormy summer is also in the picture with heat but also cooler weather due to storms cycling around the Southern Plains hot dome, systems that move in off the Pacific will drop into the Northern Plains and Great Lakes into the Eastern half of the country.

NORTHEAST COOLER ONCE AGAIN
I believe the Northeast could see a lingering trough into June but this will be pretty weak, meaning heat won’t have too much trouble entering the region and a substial heat wave is likely as the blowtorch sets up in the Plains, get that west flow over the Appalachains and a chance for downslope compressional warming into the bif cities of the Northeast is highly possible for a mid to upper-90 degree stretch in July and August. We will see cooler days in between with possible lows spinning into the region bringing, milder 70-degree days with low clouds and showers-thunderstorms. This summer will continue the stretch of recent cool summers overall, like last June when we saw extreme heat for the I-95 corridor, we will see that once again this summer but there’s always cooler air either side of the heat, no 2001 or 2002 summer this year.. High’s between Washington and Boston I think will max out around 95-100 degrees at the airports..

SOUTHEAST, COOLER WETTER, STORMIER
Overall I believe the wetter pattern we have seen this spring will be a sign of things to come, wetter soils this year may allow a feedback not seen in a few years which have been drier and therefore hotter. I believe we will see high’s generally in the upper 80s from Montgomery to Charlotte, temps held back by a moist southerly flow up from the Gulf brings humidity and plenty of fuel for daytime heating to allow the warm, moist air to rise vertically, cooling with height into afternoon thunderstorms, bringing rainsand this pattern will recycle daily, giving more moisture than dryness to the Southeast, Plenty of clouds will fill skies enough before afternoon temps can rocket through the roof, therefore giving an overall average to below average summer for the first time in several years.. High’s in Atlanta may max out around 96 this summer, down from 104 in August 2007.