After a disappointing June through August period from Manchester to Dublin to Glasgow to Copenhagen into Scandinavia, our luck may well be about to change for autumn’s opening month.
During strong El Nino summers, combined with a colder than normal Atlantic, cooler, wetter conditions tend to rule, the opposite occurs where waters are warmer and the ground is drier, hence the hot, dry summer across Iberia, France and most of mainland Europe with likely one of the continent’s hottest, driest summer’s on record in 2015.
Here’s how this summer had played out temperature anomaly wise.
June
Credit: Michael Ventrice
July
Credit: Michael Ventrice
August so far
Credit: Michael Ventrice
Quite often, the same drivers which produce a certain pattern in summer, can lead to a different pattern as we enter the transitionary period and I am optimistic that where the mean trough/ridge has setup during the summer, we may see opposite in September.
Therefore I suspect a stronger than normal high extending from Atlantic into the UK with below normal heights into France, Iberia and Mediterranean.
So, I’m going for a quieter, calmer, drier and warmer September for the UK and Ireland extending east into Denmark and Scandinavia, whereas points south and east are somewhat cooler and wetter. Central/Eastern Europe however may remain warmer and drier.
I agree with the below CFSv2 outlook for Europe in September and to an extent, October and November.
500mb height anomaly.
Credit: Tropical Tidbits
Precipitation anomaly
Credit: Tropical Tidbits
Temperature anomaly
Credit: Tropical Tidbits
As for the middle and later half of autumn, the strong El Nino, combined with potentially WARMER than normal water surrounding the UK (brought on by high pressure, less wind and warmer air temps), rainfall is likely to increase for Ireland and the UK October and particularly November.
I think September should be similar to April (warm, dry and sunny) but warm water, strong El Nino and cooling atmosphere, more often than not leads to wet or very wet October, November periods.
As for temperature, well a warmer surrounding water, with increased rainfall is likely to mean warmer-than normal air in Oct-Nov for UK/Ireland but a lot will depend on just how cold the N Atlantic is verses surrounding the UK.
A agree with the CFSv2 for October and November.
October
500mb height anomaly
Credit: Tropical Tidbits
October precipitation anomaly
Credit: Tropical Tidbits
October temperature anomaly
Credit: Tropical Tidbits
November 500mb height anomaly
Credit: Tropical Tidbits
November precipitation anomaly
Credit: Tropical Tidbits
November temperature anomaly
Credit: Tropical Tidbits
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