Old man winter is biting Europe hard these days with the coldest air of the season sweeping east to west across the continent and while much of the UK escaped last winter, we haven’t been quite so lucky this year as moisture laden Atlantic systems clash with cold, Siberian air which has got as far as Ireland this time around. This clash is turning most of the UK white and causing widespread travel misery from London all the way to Moscow.

While heavy, disruptive snow hit many of Europe’s biggest western and central cities last week, this past weekend brought more to London, Paris, Brussels as well as cities further east. Moscow has seen a half a metre of snow in just the past 4 days as a series of systems swing into the cold air hanging over the capital.

Unfortunately there is more heavy, blowing snow to come through Tuesday and Wednesday with further disruption likely across the transport network.

The cold continues through this week across western Europe and the UK and with a high building in during the later part of the week, this could promote the coldest nights yet as skies clear out and winds die down. The widespread snow cover will allow maximum radiational cooling.

Here is the latest ECMWF upper level charts and 850 temps for the rest of this week. Note the milder air pushing in from the southwest by Friday.

Wednesday

Thursday

Friday

While warmer times are on the horizon, I am reluctant to believe a rapid warm-up arrives this weekend but a more steady will through this weekend. Ice could become a significant problem across many parts of Europe as snow melts.

The reason I think it may be a slower process than what models think is because they often underestimate the amount of low level cold air and plus, snow cover has a tendency to keep the lower atmosphere colder for longer, so the eroding process of the cold can be slower. Warm Atlantic air will ride up and over the cold, denser air this weekend causing big problems with fog and ice. It’s realy early next week where we see the big change in temperatures.

Next week does promise to be MUCH milder as a more zonal ‘Atlantic’ flow crosses the country and this will eventually erode the cold from top down. By mid next week, many places will return to bare ground.

By the end of next week, there should be little evidence of the current cold and here is the CFSv2 from Jan 30 through Feb 4.

However, by the time we reach February and on through the early part of the month. Colder weather should return. Overall, February looks to be a cold month and plenty more winter on the cards.

Here’s the CFSv2 from Feb 9 through 14. This suggests a brief return to mild.

 

[s2If current_user_can(access_s2member_level1)]

[/s2If][s2If current_user_is(s2member_level0)]

Join a subscription plan, [s2Get constant=”S2MEMBER_CURRENT_USER_DISPLAY_NAME” /]!

[warning]You do not have a valid subscription to access premium content exclusive to members. You will need to join a subscription plan if you would like to continue.[/warning][/s2If][s2If !is_user_logged_in()]

Sign in to read the full forecast…

Not yet a member? Start your 7 day free trial

Create your free markvoganweather.com account today to get unlimited access to Mark Vogan’s premium articles, video forecasts and expert analysis for 7 days.
[/s2If]