United Kingdom & Ireland
January opened with the warmest New Year’s Day on record following the warmest NY’s eve. Despite a cold run up to Christmas for a large swath of Europe and modestly so for Scotland, December was a mild month for the west, southwest while north, northeast was cold. Strong blocking over Greenland made for a cold […]
If you read my 2021-22 winter forecast below, you’ll see how I explain why a sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) has a greater chance of occurring late December ’21/early January ’22 compared to others. European Winter Forecast 2021-22 Interestingly, the models are sniffing at ‘potentially’ just that towards the end of December early January. Initial Wed […]
Lag from solar min Increased arctic sea ice east QBO east based nina Last 10 days: Loaded arctic… Now: Phase 7 MJO!!! Below is the result! GFS ensemble 5-day means… 500mb anomaly for Europe 2m temperature anomaly
Welcome to my 12th annual winter forecast for Europe. In this forecast, the conclusions drawn for the upcoming 90-day meteorological winter period are based on current solar, ocean and atmospheric drivers and my understanding of their potential influence. Of course, pinpointing any specific pattern several weeks or months ahead is near impossible but we can […]
For the past couple of months I have outlined the pros and cons on whether we had a high or low likelihood of a cold winter ahead. I stand by my overall thinking that there is ‘good potential’ for significant spells of snow and cold in 2021-22. I look back at the month of November […]
The MJO has been in unfavourable phases for cold but change is afoot! While the MJO is shifting the question will be does that change mean an early kick start to the cold season? If you look at the below diagram, you can see the MJO (albeit not string) passing through phases 1, 2 and […]
Following a pretty benign September and 1st half to October, the pattern has shifted and come alive. The doldrums have gone and so too is the unusual warm, dry weather, replaced by record or near record rainfall on the west coasts of both N America and Europe. The below 2m temp anomaly for Oct 2021 […]
Based on my recent video and article regarding solar cycle and global SST response, you probably get the idea by now that the Pacific (PDO) has cooled (helped by the return of La Nina) and Atlantic is warm, very warm. The take home is this… There appears to be good linkage between solar and SST’s with […]
In this article I wish to focus on some interesting shifts in the global SST profile and what possible bearing this may have or have not on the approaching winter. Below is the global SST for around Oct 20th back to 2010. One aspect I wish to particularly hone in on is the cooling of […]
In my recent 2 part video on the pros and cons of the upcoming winter, I discussed the connection between solar maximums and minimums and behavior of the Arctic Oscillation and North Atlantic Oscillation (AO/NAO). To reinforce my point, here’s a great chart I regrettably didn’t show on the video, it the latest solar cycle chart […]
Recent Comments