United Kingdom & Ireland
Following a record strong/cold stratospheric polar vortex, major weakening/warming has been ongoing. This warming commenced within the UPPER levels of the stratosphere and has been gradually working it’s way down towards the troposphere. Check out the rise at 10mb Even more striking at 30mb Here is the latest temperature within the LOWER stratosphere! The downward […]
The first 2.5 months of 2022 is warm across north/west Canada incl Alaska, cool for central Canada, much of the Lower 48, warm for Europe and very warm across north Asia, cool for India and west/north China. Most of Africa and large swathe of South America (esp west, central) is at or below normal. Tropics […]
The ongoing La Nina and warm and cool ocean anomalies within the northern basins have clearly driven the lower tropospheric temperature. Strong warmth within the LT (lower troposphere) has shown up above the abnormally warm N Pacific and Atlantic as well as over much of northern Eurasia with no warming above the entire equatorial belt […]
As February and meteorological winter 2021-22 has come to a close, it’ll likely be remembered for it’s disappointing lack of any real winter. Winter’s opening month brought all but a tease of snow and cold during December with hopes held high only to see ‘winter’ stay mainly over the continent. After a record warm New […]
In October 2009 I commenced my commercial driving career at Graham’s Dairy (Glasgow) after passing my class 2 lorry test the previous April. My first winter and my first big test behind the wheel came fast with the ‘infamous’ winter of 2009-10. Frequent snowfall and persistently low temperatures were common with my lowest dash temperature […]
I’m sure for folks living in the UK and much of Europe, after what has been a mild and snowless winter, most won’t be thinking about the title above. It’s always important to keep in mind that what goes on in your own back yard doesn’t necessarily reflect the bigger picture. The below temperature anomaly […]
Last weekend, Scotland was hit by a double whammy of Storm Malik followed speedily by Storm Corrie. https://twitter.com/SeanBattyTV/status/1488125047831248898 Why was #StormCorrie so unusual? This weekend it’s a split between polar-maritime and subtropical maritime air with heavy snow showers piling into the Highlands aboard a strong to gale force NW wind. https://twitter.com/MarkVogan/status/1490233963876651011 These frequent, blustery snow […]
Winter 2021-22 So Far! Back in July I began to build my 2021-22 winter forecast. I’ve spent many an hour studying and taking into consideration ALL the global and regional parameters, players and drivers currently in place at the time and came up the an eventual forecast at the beginning of December. Based on my […]
January opened with the warmest New Year’s Day on record following the warmest NY’s eve. Despite a cold run up to Christmas for a large swath of Europe and modestly so for Scotland, December was a mild month for the west, southwest while north, northeast was cold. Strong blocking over Greenland made for a cold […]
If you read my 2021-22 winter forecast below, you’ll see how I explain why a sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) has a greater chance of occurring late December ’21/early January ’22 compared to others. European Winter Forecast 2021-22 Interestingly, the models are sniffing at ‘potentially’ just that towards the end of December early January. Initial Wed […]
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