United Kingdom & Ireland
Unless something dramatically changes, the first taste of winter should reach UK shores early next week and the trend is for colder as the week progresses. In recent posts/videos I’ve broken down the details on the evolution to this early start to winter with weak polar vortex and -AO laying the ground work early over Siberia. […]
Snow cover continues to expand across Eurasia ahead of schedule thanks to a weak polar vortex and persistent -AO induced northern blocking. Moscow and Kiev both woke to their first snowfall this morning with 20cm locally. Kiev, Ukraine last night. Moscow before daybreak this morning. This cold trend doesn’t appear to wane but intensify as we head for […]
We have bookend lows in extreme SW and NE of the continent while high pressure dominates in between. The jet is splitting west of Ireland with the greatest energy on the southern branch, hence why we have a major low bringing wet and stormy conditions to the Canaries, Northwest Africa extending into southern Iberia. Impressive shelf cloud rolling in […]
We continue our journey from summer into winter and it’s often a rollercoaster ride. This week shall be no exception. On the other side of the Atlantic, a storm system has swept away record 80-degree weather day after day over the Northeast US and replaced it with cold, windy and even snowy conditions. This dramatic contrast has accelerated the trans […]
In the wake of a record warm September, a strongly negative Arctic Oscillation (AO) with persistent blocking high pressure over Scandinavia which has made for a cold October. -AO forced by a nice tropospheric warming event. October temperature anomaly so far this October. It’s been a record warm October over the Eastern United States. Note below the […]
As we enter the final 10 days of October I continue to gather the remaining evidence in order to put forward my 2016-17 winter forecast. The latest information regarding Arctic Sea Ice states that for the time of year, we have the lowest levels on record as you can see from the below chart. Look […]
As your well aware, we’ve a very blocked up pattern with high pressure repositioning back into Scandinavia while Atlantic lows get diverted into Iberia and south-central Europe. However, the driving mechanism to our weather can be traced back to North America. In today’s written post I want to show you the GFS jet stream chart through the […]
At this time last year, the polar vortex was strong and continuing to strengthen, likely influenced by the heat discharge emitted by the oncoming Super El Nino with a firm low over high pressure hemispheric 500mb pattern. This laid to dominant zonal, oceanic influence on both North America, Europe and indeed Asia. This year it’s been weak and this along with a […]
As forecast, the Scottish Highlands have received their first widespread covering above 3,000ft thanks to the passage of a cold front overnight which brought heavy and persistent rain for a time. Winds veered northwesterly and this drove in our first real push of ocean modified Greenland air. This morning is more like late October. This morning’s view from […]
Before we focus on the Western Europe short range I want to pan out and look at the bigger picture because it’s this that explains the finer details. Firstly, Nicole remains a hurricane and a hurricane that’s getting unusually far north. As you can see from the below NHC track forecast this system is expected […]
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