Winter 2015/16
Firstly, here’s a look at the end of the week/weekend Mid-Atlantic snow event according to the GFS. [s2If current_user_can(access_s2member_level1)] Reason I skip quickly through the end of the week snow is because this will be dwarfed by what follows and I cannot get away from this. The amount of warmth lifting north and east across […]
Following a remarkably warm March 2012, we experienced the opposite in the following March which turned out to be the UK’s coldest in 50 years. All courtesy of a sudden stratospheric warming event which held a -AO/NAO throughout the month. March 2013 City Temp. Departure (Celsius) % Of Normal Precip London -1.5 205% Birmingham -2.9 132% Dublin -2.4 […]
You can’t argue with the stats, winter 2015-16 is going down as one of the warmest and wettest on record with many seeing a top 5, even top 2 warm Dec-Feb period. No question, this can be directly attributed to the record tying El Nino which produced the warmest December on record, coinciding with the peaking of the […]
On the meteorological calendar, we end winter today and commence spring tomorrow. Winter 2015-16 will be remembered not for it’s cold and snow but warm and wet. The bulk of the warmth came during December, coinciding with the likely peaking of this years record tying El Nino which overwhelmed the entire hemispheric pattern. Nov-Dec Although […]
While the next two lows in the series are likely to track west of the DC to Boston corridor, the ECMWF says it’s 3rd time lucky Fri-Sat as a cold trough deepens, forcing the storm track south of DC. First of all, we have another major storm system this week which is likely to bring a sizable snow […]
Wouldn’t this be great to see in March following the UK’s 3rd warmest winter on record! [s2If current_user_can(access_s2member_level1)] Combine the above collapse of the PV projected by GFS ensemble above with the MJO entering phase 8 which gives this for March… and models day 5-10 show this… We cannot rule out an impressive cold spell, […]
Am I missing something? It appears we have a full blown sudden stratospheric warming event underway with the apparent collapse of the polar vortex. MJO is within phase 8 (cold phase) and yet the models aren’t showing much in response. Is it me or is it the models simply not seeing what’s happening within the arctic atmosphere? […]
As expected, a blocking high situated across the Northern UK has deflected Atlantic energy south and a deep Atlantic low is producing strong wind, low level rain and heavy snow across much of interior Spain. This low is dragging arctic air with it and as a result, today will probably be the coldest of winter […]
We of course saw the nasty multiday severe outbreak up the East Coast this week and unfortunately next week could deliver a similar scenario as another large and powerful storm system looks to take a similar track keeping the East Coast initially within the warm, moist and most unstable side. While the latest run of the GFS doesn’t suggest quite the juicy environment […]
With a chilly but settled end to February, it looks as though meteorological winter’s final month will end up slightly below normal temperature wise. [s2If current_user_can(access_s2member_level1)] The ECMWF shows a nice blocky, chilly look next 5 days for UK and Western Europe. Interesting but not surprising, the blocking looks to hold day 5-10. Looking good for a continuation of […]
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