Rest of Europe
We know September was a warm month and in fact the UK’s second warmest on record but have you noticed how it’s felt chilly? Thank or blame that Scandinavia blocking high, the strongly negative Arctic Oscillation and in turn weak polar vortex. Just look at the incredible flip in where it was warmest during September, it so happens to […]
The easterlies continue but not for long as low pressure lifts north from Iberia introducing milder but more unsettled Atlantic weather. The continental influence will hang on today and confined to NE Scotland tomorrow with driving rain and a gale blowing off the North Sea. Intense shower pulses associated with the low lifting north will spread into southern/central Ireland and the UK. […]
Figures and text updated 4 October 2016 with provisional full month data. Despite a mixture of weather across the UK, two warm spells around the 9th and 13th of the month helped boost temperatures, with this September provisionally the equal-second warmest for the UK since records began in 1910. Provisional stats show the mean temperature […]
Thanks to the powerful Scandinavian block, the Atlantic has been absent from the Northwest Europe pattern. Atlantic traffic has been following the diversion route into Iberia where it’s turning cooler and more unsettled. [s2If current_user_can(access_s2member_level1)] As we progress into late week, Hurricane Nicole will have crossed Bermuda and will be lifting northward into the western North […]
[s2If current_user_can(access_s2member_level1)] Ok, so we continue to endure that nagging easterly wind with hefty, gusty showers piling in off the North Sea. By late week and through the weekend, a low sliding underneath the Scandinavia block in over Iberia will spread it’s cloud and rain northwards over the UK and so we can expect a more rainy period […]
[s2If current_user_can(access_s2member_level1)] The large scale pattern remains much the same through the remainder of this week with only suttle changes. Those changes are all courtesy of an undercutting low pushing into Iberia which increases the pressure gradient between high and low, so winds from the ESE steadily pick up over the UK and within the shower clouds streaming in off the North Sea, it […]
This latest write-up from Dr Judah Cohen ties in nicely and adds greater detail to my recent posts touching on the importance of Siberia/Eurasia snow cover growth and upcoming winter. Arctic Oscillation and Polar Vortex Analysis and Forecasts October 7, 2016 Special blog on winter retrospective can be found here – http://www.aer.com/winter2016 Dr. Judah Cohen from Atmospheric and Environmental Research (AER) recently […]
[s2If current_user_can(access_s2member_level1)] An anomalous negative AO pattern by early October standards is helping bring a fast start to winter across Siberia. Yes winter starts late September/early October in Arctic Russia but the current -AO is helping get the winter wheels in motion faster, stronger and ahead of this time last year. First snow of the season for Omsk, Russia. Parts of Poland woke […]
Here’s a positive indicator. Siberian snowpack is growing faster as of October 1 this year compared to last. Thank a strongly negative Arctic Oscillation. [s2If current_user_can(access_s2member_level1)] Expect snow cover throughout Eurasia to continue expanding westward. That negative Arctic Oscillation is helping feed some pretty chilly early season Arctic Russian air across Europe beneath a sprawling Scandinavia blocking high. […]
We are firmly under the influence of a monster Scandinavia ridge and will continue to be through the upcoming weekend. A low running the SE flank and drifting into Poland will enhance the ENE flow and while likely bringing snowfall to some, I expect chillier air to reach the UK late week as the nagging […]
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