Rest of Europe
There are clear signs of a cooler and drier pattern evolving for the UK, Ireland and much of Europe starting this week and may continue well into April. This type of pattern may have fairly significant influence later into spring and indeed the summer ahead. Positive influence if you like something similar to last year, hint […]
There’s good agreement with all the big models that a ‘Modoki’ style El Nino will form this summer. (Modoki: Central Pacific based El Nino, typical during cold PDO’s) LINK: The El Niño Modoki TOP IMAGE: Courtesy of NASA [s2If current_user_can(access_s2member_level1)] Due to the cold PDO, El Nino’s tend to be weak and short lived. Joe Bastardi of WeatherBell points out […]
When looking through the various charts this morning, there was one thing that grabbed my attention. The GFS and to an extent the ECMWF, has snow even in Africa in the coming days. That would be impressive given the averages are way up there by now. It should be getting warm, not cold in the desert […]
We have a fairly significant cross polar strat warming underway. This time, it’s over the pole. Throughout this winter the warming at 10mb has been from Russia across the N Pacific into Alaska, so it’s different from before but that doesn’t mean we’re suddenly set for the winter we never got. However it’s a setup supportive of cooler times at least. […]
Time and time again this winter, modelling has suggested spells of cold with snow but most of those times, it was nothing to write home about. This month sits in between the extremes of the past two Marches. Remember last year? Looked and felt more like January. In fact, if last March had of been January, […]
[s2If current_user_can(access_s2member_level1)] Based on current circumstances both in atmosphere, ocean and soil, it would appear that we’re going into a ‘changeable weather pattern’ for the spring. In other words, we could go back and forth between ridge and trough but the overall theme is likely to sway more towards low pressure in the means over […]
Hope you’ve enjoyed this week’s pleasant weather, albeit disrupted at times by cloud, mist and fog but at least we’ve had a sustained period without rain. As we continue to press through March, I continue to study the pattern we’re in, have been in and the influence our surrounding water temperatures may be having and […]
A strong anticyclone dominates not just the UK and Ireland but pretty much the whole of Europe these days with most areas void of cloud cover. Here’s is that anomalous positive gracing our skies and helping raise our spirits. [s2If current_user_can(access_s2member_level1)] Interestingly when looking at the initial ECMWF sea level pressure field, there’s nowhere over our continent (except the […]
There’s little ‘weather’ to speak of across most of Europe thanks to a strong positive height field. Temps managed to reach 16C in the Scottish Highlands this afternoon thanks to abundant sun, dry air and light winds. The ridge appears to peak in strength tomorrow over the North Sea before a gradual decline in heights […]
The spring forecast will be released in the coming days but I have deliberately held back on putting a forecast out. The reason is that we’re talking about a cold AMO signal along with a potential El Nino forming this summer. These factors along with the wet soils across Ireland and the UK will have impact […]
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