Rest of Europe
Over the course of the weekend, we had the perfect atmospheric setup both near the surface and in the upper levels for Saharan dust to get picked up, transported north and dropped over southern England yesterday. Many folks who headed out door this morning only to discover a strange dusty film on their car. Probably frustrating […]
We have a fairly tricky forecast this upcoming week in terms of pinning down the details in terms of sun, cloud and rain. The strongest positive this week will be focused over Iceland and that ridge runs SSE to Italy and the central Med. Cold, even arctic air will push south on the eastern side of […]
Models are in good agreement about the upcoming 10 days with it’s 500mb height anomalies. Front running 7 days shows both models with the Iceland to Italy ridge and deep troughs either side. [s2If current_user_can(access_s2member_level1)] The trough-ridge-trough orientation has the UK and west, central continent mild and settled while cold air strives to drop out of Scandinavia towards Ukraine and SE. […]
If you read and watched last Sunday’s Mother’s Day outlook for the UK, you’ll remember the uncertainty and conflicting solutions between ECMWF and GFS. Both models are now in the same camp and it’s looking good for the majority of both the UK and Ireland as well as much of central and western Europe. [s2If current_user_can(access_s2member_level1)] It’s looking rather mild […]
In a follow up to last night’s post regarding the cooler, drier outlook, I want to look a little more closely at soil moisture content and it’s importance in atmospheric feedback as we toward warmer times. Here’s the ECMWF’s interpretation of Europe’s soil moisture content. [s2If current_user_can(access_s2member_level1)] The focus of wettest ground extends from the UK to Italy. This is where […]
There are clear signs of a cooler and drier pattern evolving for the UK, Ireland and much of Europe starting this week and may continue well into April. This type of pattern may have fairly significant influence later into spring and indeed the summer ahead. Positive influence if you like something similar to last year, hint […]
There’s good agreement with all the big models that a ‘Modoki’ style El Nino will form this summer. (Modoki: Central Pacific based El Nino, typical during cold PDO’s) LINK: The El Niño Modoki TOP IMAGE: Courtesy of NASA [s2If current_user_can(access_s2member_level1)] Due to the cold PDO, El Nino’s tend to be weak and short lived. Joe Bastardi of WeatherBell points out […]
When looking through the various charts this morning, there was one thing that grabbed my attention. The GFS and to an extent the ECMWF, has snow even in Africa in the coming days. That would be impressive given the averages are way up there by now. It should be getting warm, not cold in the desert […]
We have a fairly significant cross polar strat warming underway. This time, it’s over the pole. Throughout this winter the warming at 10mb has been from Russia across the N Pacific into Alaska, so it’s different from before but that doesn’t mean we’re suddenly set for the winter we never got. However it’s a setup supportive of cooler times at least. […]
Time and time again this winter, modelling has suggested spells of cold with snow but most of those times, it was nothing to write home about. This month sits in between the extremes of the past two Marches. Remember last year? Looked and felt more like January. In fact, if last March had of been January, […]
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