We have a fairly significant cross polar strat warming underway. This time, it’s over the pole. Throughout this winter the warming at 10mb has been from Russia across the N Pacific into Alaska, so it’s different from before but that doesn’t mean we’re suddenly set for the winter we never got. However it’s a setup supportive of cooler times at least. The strat warming once again is most favourable for the US and more arctic air is on the way for them next week and beyond.

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Blame or thank the strong westerly QBO and moderate solar flux for this setup supporting a cold North America but warm Europe according to WeatherBell’s Joe D’Aleo. As we’re now into spring and days are considerably longer, there are changes going on not just down here on the ground but up above, hence the different type of strat warming we’re seeing now compared to back in December. What does this mean? Well, like I say I don’t believe we’re set for significant winter weather, largely due to the time of year obviously BUT we are seeing colder conditions and the increasing likelihood for southern Europe snow.

Here is that setup which could bring the surprise southern mountain snows.

First we’ve got the front crossing the UK, ushering in much colder air. That pushes the heat we once had eastwards. Eventually that front dives all the way to the Med Sea while the high which pushes east, eventually get forced up and over top of the trough and this is how the cut off low forms. That upper trough and forming low contains unusually cold air for this time of year.

Here’s the big contrast in temperature at 5,000ft during tomorrow.

As you can see, the trough dives further south. Low north of the UK, draws colder air out of the arctic and drives it into the trough now forming surface low pressure near Italy.

Here’s a look from the upper level perspective.

As the trough deepens, so the cut off spins up at the base over Italy! Also note the energy streaming into Iberia on the tail of the front crossing the UK..

500mb shows upper setup nicely. Impressive upper energy circling above Italy.

Check out the cold 5,000ft temps within the trough.

Here’s the surface chart out to 168 our a week from today.

And with all that seen by the models, here’s the latest snow charts. While it won’t snow at sea level, the southern Europe mountain ranges could see a decent covering.

Looking out over the next couple of weeks, it’s looking like we stay on the cool side of normal which should help balance the month near average compared to the warm and cold extremes of the past two Marches.

In coming weeks, I will delve into the solar side of things and where we’re at in terms of cycle and strength and what this may mean.

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Tags: europe snow, italy snow