Mark Vogan
In light of a transition from La Nina to El Nino and coverage of warmer-than-average ocean and atmosphere, a flip from abnormal dry to wet was anticipated for the UK and Ireland. This proved to be the case during summer 2023 with a dramatic flip from record warm, dry June to one of the wettest […]
Key Factors Current Global state (ocean & land temperature anomaly) The planet is without doubt a warmer place now than a decade ago and currently in a steep warming trend unlike anything seen in the modern era. For the last time the earth dipped below average you have to go all the way back to […]
Following a very interesting summer, September will go down as a quite remarkable month. We’ve seen it all with a full blown heatwave delivering the ‘warmest weather of the year’ to very unsettled conditions during the 2nd half with a named storm too. The month has also seen a dramatic tale of two halves. From […]
Key Factors Current Global state (ocean & land temperature anomaly) Current overall global sea surface temp anomaly Past summer upper air pattern (lot’s of blocking) Enso (el nino-southern oscillation index) Type of El Nino QBO (easterly) IOD (positive) Atlantic hurricane activity THINGS WE KNOW CURRENTLY….. WE CONTINUE TO WITNESS RECORD WARM GLOBAL LAND AND OCEAN […]
As meteorological summer draws to a close, so it ends on a cool, showery note. However change appears to be on the horizon as a new season dawns. That change comes courtesy of a strong northward progressing hurricane as well as the wakening up of the MJO. It’s been quite a remarkable summer both in […]
The difference between June and July 2023 just ending has been like chalk and cheese, polar opposites. High pressure (centred just N of Scotland) in June was replaced by low pressure (draped across Ireland, UK and Scandinavia) in July. From the warmest June on record (as per Met Office) to what looks likely to be […]
Despite the opening week being slightly BELOW average, according to the Met Office June 2023 will go down as the UK’s warmest on record! 🌡June 2023 is provisionally on track to be the hottest June on record for the UK, beating the previous record set in 1940. Find out more, including the influence of climate […]
May 2023 has been somewhat of a strange month. An odd pattern with a distinct tale of two halves precip-wise with wet start and dry end. A slow and gradual warming trend through the final week. Maximum UK temperatures have been mediocre to say the least this month. According to Syran Bruan, with a UK […]
Welcome to my 13th annual UK, Europe summer forecast. As always, when compiling this forecast for the upcoming June-August period there are multiple factors which have been taken into consideration. They include the past winter pattern, type of spring just observed as well as other factors including current ENSO state, global and regional sea surface temperature […]
India and Pakistan observed a cooler, wetter than average April and has begun May extremely cool compared to what is typically approaching the hottest time of year as the monsoon season nears. April temp anomaly as per CDAS data, courtesy of Weatherbell.com. May’s opening week! https://twitter.com/extremetemps/status/1654091059968847874 Meanwhile, beneath an unusual strong anticyclone, the heat remains […]
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