Europe July 2023 Outlook

Written by on June 28, 2023 in Rest of Europe, United Kingdom & Ireland with 0 Comments

Despite the opening week being slightly BELOW average, according to the Met Office June 2023 will go down as the UK’s warmest on record!

It will be remembered as a largely high pressure (from May) dominated month, increasingly warm to hot between 8-20th the anticyclonic core shifted from NW to E of UK which opened the door to a much warmer and more humid source air.

Before the heat and humidity arrived, the Sutherland hamlet of Kinbrace observed the UK’s coolest June night since 2012. About 10 days later and we observed the UK’s EARLIEST 30C since 2012!!

After Scotland witnessed the lowest June temperature since 2012, on the 25th, Achnagart, W Highland achieved an ‘initial overnight’ minimum of 20.1C making it the UK’s first ‘tropical night’.

However, the thermometer fell through the day so this didn’t count as a true minimum. Had it counted, it would’ve been Scotland’s warmest June night on record and close to it’s all-time warmest night recorded at the same place back in July 2019 when the minimum was 20.9C.

June 2023 will also be remembered for having surface waters 4-6C above normal W and S of the UK and Ireland. Considered a ‘category 5’ level marine heatwave close to Ireland and more widely ‘category 4’ extending south into the tropics by NOAA.

Credit: Climate Reanalyzer

The anomalous and persistent high over low pattern through much of spring and now early summer is the likely cause of such warming from a relatively short term perspective.

As per the June Outlook, the first 20 days saw the high dominate across N Europe with low pressure presenting unusually cool and wet conditions to the south over Iberia and the Med. As we progressed beyond the 15th, low pressure from south and southwest began to stumble northwards bringing a gradual breakdown to the unusually persistent Mediterranean-like conditions.

As we enter the final week of June, rainfall is increasing as heights fall and expected to drop below 1000mb for the first time in 1-2 months (depending upon location).

2m temp anomaly up to 27th June.

Credit: Weatherbell.com

MSLP from 1 April to mid-June…

Rain starved NW Highland is beginning to see appreciable rainfall and I expect quite a different upcoming couple of months here.

River levels are OK the further south you go thanks to a wet spring but the further north and west you are over the UK and Ireland, the drier it has been since late winter…

Highest temperatures achieved during June 2023

ENGLAND/UK: 32.2C at Churtsey, Surrey & Coningsby, Lincolnshire

WALES: 30.8C at Porthmadog, Gwynedd

SCOTLAND: 30.7C at Threave, Dumfries & Galloway (new June record)

NORTHERN IRELAND: 28C at Armagh, Co Armagh

The 13th of June is the only day in British meteorological summer history to have not achieved 30C somewhere. Well up until 2023!

While the UK and Ireland basked in the Med-like conditions, an unusually far south and deep Atlantic depression swept up through the Azores, Madeira and Canary Islands.

Record rains hit Madeira and in fact produced a new 24-hour rainfall record for Portugal.

The final week of June has seen the upper pattern flip on it’s head with the return of the sub-tropical high to it’s more traditional position while low pressure heads north heralding the the ‘return of the westerlies’.

As the westerlies make a comeback for the UK and Ireland, so the sub-tropical high returns closer to it’s home. After a very wet and even cooler-than-average mid May to mid-June period, Iberia, NW Africa and even the mid-Atlantic island of Madeira ends June record hot.

Thunderstorm activity was notable during June for particularly the Midlands of England as well as Ireland.

WHAT WAS SAID… Europe June 2023 Outlook

In my opinion, my 500mb projection was pretty good with position to north as well as west followed by east shift and building heat and humidity as the ridge shifted to Scandinavia.

Also the shower and t-storm risk lifting up from the S or SW was good along with driest being Northern UK, wetter further south, especially through the Med basin and S/Cent Europe…

I believe the let down may have been a slight underestimate in temperature, particularly so for England, Wales and Ireland and 2C under for Scotland.

SKILL SCORE: 8-10?

How’s July looking?

It’s looks quite likely that July could well be a tale of two halves. Cooler, more unsettled first half followed by increasingly drier, warmer and more high pressure dominated second half!

I expect a bit of a trough-ridge battle for Britain & Ireland through July’s opening week followed by strong and more southward influence of the Icelandic trough week 2.

The series of lows rotating NNW of Scotland could well deepen, cleaning out the air all the way to SE England, perhaps even sweeping as far south as N Spain with showers and longer spells of rain…

I think we’ll see more trough dominance over most of the UK week 1 of July followed by slightly more ridge influence edging north from France week 2 with potential of some northward intrusions of somewhat warm to hot and humid air towards mid July on. Lingering ‘unsettled’ conditions across N UK though.

The CFSv2 weeklies show the trough dominating MOST of the UK and Ireland through the first half of the month replaced by higher pressure from 14-18th onwards bringing a warmer, drier pattern.

Will be interesting to see whether the trough lingers beyond the suggested ‘pull away’ period…

CFSv2 weeklies

500mb anomaly

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Meanwhile further south and pulses of heat are likely to build and pulsate periodically north from Africa into southern and eastern Europe during the month.

CFSv2 for July

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

FOR UK/IRELAND: AVERAGE TO ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES – WETTER THAN AVERAGE, AIDED BY LOW PRESSURE OVER UNUSUALLY WARM SST’s.

SPELLS OF COOL & WET IS LIKELY DURING ‘AT LEAST’ THE FIRST HALF OF THE MONTH FOLLOWED BY SPELLS OF HEAT AND HUMIDITY (PARTICULARLY ENGLAND AND WALES) DURING THE 2ND HALF.

WE COULD SEE SIGNIFICANT NW TO SE CONTRASTS WITH COOL & WET NORTH, HOT, DRY SOUTH, SOUTHEAST OF UK. WITH LOW PRESSURE ALWAYTS CLOSEST TO SCOTLAND & N IRELAND, THIS MONTH IS LIKELY NEAR AVERAGE, PERHAPS A LITTLE BELOW BUT WARM SST’s COULD KEEP IT MILD, ESP WITH WARM NIGHTS

As for Europe

Spells of very hot weather is expected to make 2 or 3 visits in waves to Iberia, Italy, the Balkan countries as well as Baltics where 45C is possible in Spain, Portugal, Italy, Greece, 42C S France, 35C Low Countries, 38C Romania, Bulgaria, 38C Moldova, Ukraine, 32C Lithuania, Estonia, Finland… Strong thunderstorms will also erupt widely at times bringing a flash flood risk!

Projected Max Temps for July for UK/Ireland:

England: 33C

Wales: 30C

Scotland: 27C

Northern Ireland: 25C

Rep of Ireland: 26C

FEATURED IMAGE CREDIT: Sharon Cuatriz

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