The westerlies continued on from mid January through much of February as well as March, reflected nicely with a persistent +AO/NAO.
Warmer than average has been the rule but not without a chillier end to the month as per my March Outlook.
From late winter to early spring, rainfall distribution returned to a typical climatalogical position reflective of a +NAO with low near Iceland, high near Azores. This allowed SW mainland to dry out some but low pressure over the Med brought wet conditions to eastern Iberia, Balearics, Italy, Malta etc.
While March was generally drier, and warmer for Canaries, Madeira, Azores, there was a cool, wet, windy period 20-25th of March due to a large, deep cut off low. See March Recap.
There is pretty solid agreement in GFS/ECM/CFS for a continued ‘westerly’ driven pattern through the first week to 10 days of April with both AO/NAO remaining positive.
ECM Days 1-14 mean sea level pressure anomaly.
GFS Days 1-14 mean sea level pressure anomaly.
Then a shift to higher pressure perhaps building northwards over Europe towards mid month and lingering through the 2nd half. This suggestion turns off the westerlies with winds perhaps switching easterly. A response of the SSW?
ECM Days 14-28
GFS Days 14-28
The first half is wettest N & W, driest S & E for both UK & Europe, wet much of Ire. Temperature-wise the GFS is cool, ECM mild away from NW. Perhaps warmer S & E over UK through first half? The period 1-15 has an enhancement of the cyclonic pattern between 5-10th with deeper lows potentially bringing stormy conditions to WNW UK around Easter, possibly a little beyond.
The mid and 2nd half of April has a clear shift to more of an anticyclonic setup but that doesn’t provide a clear cut story. High over low could suggest wet Eng/Wales/S Ire and across S Europe, drier across Scot, NI, Scandi. The models shows a ‘less wet’ signal but it’s not strong on a ‘dry’ signal.
30-day MSLP/Precip/temp anomaly off ECM, GFS & CFS
GFS
ECM
CFS
Expect plenty of ups and downs in temperature with a few surges of warmth ahead of lows along with some chilly days. Typical spring-time diurnal swings (frosty nights, warm afternoons) of 18-22C+ is likely if clear, dry air beneath high pressure builds over head.
The Verdict…
A month of two halves with cyclonic 1st half (wet NW/dry SE), anticyclonic (northerly high) 2nd half (drier N/wetter S). I expect average to below average temps Ire, Scot, N Eng & Scandi, Warmer than average Eng/Wales & near continent. Rainfall overall: Wet Ire, Scot but tricky further S/E with pressure flip, so? Drier S/E UK & near continent.
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