For the UK, winter 2022-23 has been around average with small areas of above normal. For much of the continent, it’s been another mild to warm one.

December really stood out for both UK and Europe compared to the rest of 2022 as seen in the graphic below!

December 22 anomaly

January 23

Feb 23

According to the MO, the past February was England’s driest in 30 years.

February was a marked contrast to the opening 10 days of January which, for some in the south was record wet!

Last 90-day anomaly!

https://twitter.com/MarkVogan/status/1630980853961457679

The Met Office states a drier, near average temperature and sunnier than normal winter for the UK.

The temperature extreme for the season varies from -17.3C recorded at Braemar, Aberdeenshire on 12 December verses 17.2C recorded at Pershore, Worchestershire on 17 February.

As for my winter 2022-23 forecast, while December scored an 8 out of 10 and January a 7, February was the one that let me down. Scoring only a 4 due to prolonged mild conditions. What’s helped prop up the February score slightly was the expected development of a Major Sudden Stratospheric Warming (SSW) and some cold conditions across the southern UK and Europe. Scotland and Northern Europe has been VERY mild throughout the final month of meteorological winter following a cold December and fairly cold January up until the 20th or so.

While my prediction was AVERAGE TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE for the 90-day period with cold December and January which could go either way depending upon stratospheric developments or lack of as well as MJO.

It was said that NO SSW could mean a prolonged period of mild during January or mild first half followed by colder 2nd half. Well we had a mild start and mild end with decent period of cold in the middle. The first 15-20 days was colder than average for Scotland, near average Northern Ireland as well as the rest of the UK and the VERY mild opening 10 days for much of England and Wales wound up near average for the entire month thanks to a pretty strong period of cold between 13-22nd.

February was the big bust in my forecast, I had predicted the return of colder MJO phases (7, 8 & 1) and a major SSW, which had the potential to produce the coldest spell of the entire winter. With the MJO stuck in a strong phase 3 then creeping through 4, 5 and 6 combined with a delayed but not denied major SSW, the mild lived on through pretty much all of February.

IF that prediction of mild first half and cold 2nd half to February materialised then I recon the entire winter period could well have leaned colder than average for the 90-day. In terms of the ‘average to slightly above average’ call for the UK, I guess 7.5 out of 10 would be fair.

While my winter forecast only incorporates the Dec-Feb period, that doesn’t mean winter is over, in fact March has been known for delivering significant cold and snowy spells. In fact, in the past, March can deliver colder temperatures than a typical January with 2013 and prime example, being the coldest month of the entire 2012-23 winter and 2nd coldest March for the UK in over 100 years. 2023 could well provide a fascinating ‘end game’ thanks to the major SSW which occurred back on 16th February.

It appears the long awaited tropospheric response from the mid-Feb SSW finally arrives this weekend bringing the return of a snow threat and cold northerlies.

Exact details on the movement and eventual position of the high currently dominating the UK remains uncertain.

Here’s the ECMWF 500mb height anomaly perspective of the pattern evolution from 28 Feb to 8 March.

2m temp anomaly

Here’s the latest run of the GFS for 850mb temperatures for Monday.

As you can see from the above graphics, next week has the potential to turn really quite cold and likely to remain cold throughout next week before a potential for milder Atlantic air pushing into the SW next weekend.

ECMWF vs GFS snow depth for 1800 UTC next Friday!

For the UK and Ireland, snowfall next week will come 1 of 2 ways. 1, cold NNE winds blowing convective snow showers into north and eastern areas with possible features developing in the cold flow which could bring snow to anywhere! 2, low pressure engaging with the cold air (system snow). Both could present fairly large snow accumulations and significant disruption.

An attempt at milder Atlantic air could bring a proper return to milder conditions NEXT WEEKEND but if that comes, I believe further waves of cold accompanied by snow is likely and for the month of March overall, it could have a similar temperature departure from normal as December. This COULD be one of the coldest March’s since 2013 and 2018.

The CFSV2 weeklies show a battle between arctic air coming SW and mild Atlantic air trying to push NE with UK in the battle ground.

Note a shift week 3! This would suppose milder going by the 500mb setup but doesn’t take into account underneath!

I believe the cold wins the battle but that Azores ridge poking further northeast into the SW or indeed UK overall cannot be ignored given Atlantic SST profile etc.

The UK, as is often the case could be in the battle zone between mild Atlantic pushing from the SW and arctic/continental pushing from the NNE but given the amplification of the phase 8 MJO combined with SSW response, I recon cold wins, well that’s my hunch/opinion and will stick by that.

We shall see what happens.

I will shout for a colder than normal month which has potential for extreme cold (by March standards) and 2 or 3 notable waves of cold!

For details on next week. How cold, where sees snow and how much? BE SURE TO CHECK OUT MY DAILY VIDEOS ON YOUTUBE AND DON’T FORGET TO SUBSCRIBE!

Tags: featured, monthly-outlook