In my recent 2 part video on the pros and cons of the upcoming winter, I discussed the connection between solar maximums and minimums and behavior of the Arctic Oscillation and North Atlantic Oscillation (AO/NAO).

To reinforce my point, here’s a great chart I regrettably didn’t show on the video, it the latest solar cycle chart by Hathaway. As you can clearly see we are slowly coming out of the most recent solar minimum. Based on the 1-2 year lag theory, the upcoming winter presents a very exciting prospect.

While some argue that the sun provides little to no short term influence on earth’s climate system, there does however appear to be influences which relate to the behavior of the AO/NAO. Of course there are several other major oceanic and atmospheric drivers which have year by year influence.

There is also NO denying that our earth continues to warm.

So, in short, as can be seen from the above solar cycle chart and below NAO chart… around the occurrence of a solar maximum there appears to be greater periods of +AO/NAO with stronger polar vortexes, jet stream and warmer, often wetter winters.

These multiyear periods of seemingly continuous +AO/NAO winters appear to have a duration lasting the better part of a decade but contain 1 or 2 colder -AO/NAO winters. Within these increased +AO/NAO winters there also appears to be a series of ‘stormier’ winters as seen in the early to mid 90s and mid-2010s.

Then, 12-24 months AFTER a solar minimum, there is 1-2 consecutive winters dominated by a blocky -AO/NAO winter. The most recent example of this is 2009-10 and early 2010-11, to a less extreme extent in 2000-01

 

So, the golden question is, was last year’s ‘blocky and relatively colder’ -AO/NAO winter, like 2008-09 laying the ground work, a precursor to a big winter to follow? 2009-10… 2021-22?

As also made mention of the videos, I do have my concerns, other forces which could hamper the ‘perfect global setup’ which brings the return of a 78-79 or 2009-10 winter.

BTW, note that with each decade there is less -AO/NAO’s. Also note strong positive phases of the AO/NAO there can often be a strong, almost counter acting negative phase…

Tags: La Nina, polar vortex, solar cycle, solar cycle 25, solar minimum